Introduction

This analysis explores the relationships of agricultural commodity loss, at a county level, from 1989-2015, for the 26 county region of the Palouse, in Washington, Idaho, and Oregon. Here we explore the entire range of commodities and damage causes, identifying the top revenue loss commodities and their most pertinent damage causes - as indicated from the USDA’s agricultural commodity loss insurance archive.

We perform several steps to examine the full set of data, and to narrow down factors to a usable form, for mixed modeling analysis.

Step 1. Data Preparation: Loading and Transforming data. Here we load commodity loss data, and aggregate by differing factors, so we can examine losses on an annual basis, by county, damage cause, and commodity.

Step 2. Study Area Overview. We narrow down our data to the 26 county palouse region, and display a study area map for perspective.

Step 3. Summary Overview of total revenue by Commodity. We summarize all commodity insurance loss by commodity - so we can determine the top revenue loss commodities for a filtered examination.

Step 4. Summary Overview of total revenue by Damage Cause. Similarly to Step 3, we summarize all insurance loss by the cause of the damage, so we can determine which damage causes are resulting the the majority of insurance loss.

Step 5. Refinement of data to top revenue commodities, and Damage Causes that are most impactful. Given Steps 3 and 4, here we narrow down our dataset to only examine those top commodities and most impactful damage causes.

Step 6. Exploratory Analysis of top commodities individually, to see variations by damage cause. In Step 6, we now examine the top commodities individually, looking at how insurance loss varies by damage cause, by county, and by year.

Step 7. Missing Data Examination. In this step we examine missing data in relationship to all of our factors (year, county, damagecause) for each individual commodity we are examining (wheat, apples, cherries, and dry peas)

Step 8. Resolving missing data. In some instances, we have missing data, and in other instances, zero value data is not missing, but rather, there is just no values/loss claims for a particular commodity or damage cause - i.e. a commodity was grown in county X, but there was no drought claims, vs. there were no drought claims becuase, the commodity itself was not grown at all. In Step 8, we attempt to resolve missing data issues for our Step 8 analysis.

Step 9. Individual Commodity Mixed Model Analysis. In Step 9, we perform a mixed modeling analysis, using a two step hurdle model technique to address zero-inflated data.

Step 1. Data Preparation: Loading and Transformation data

The first step is to load Pacific Northwest agricultural insurance commodity loss data, aggregate by county, damage cause and commodity, remove zeros, transform the loss values ($) into cube root and logrithmic outputs, and scale and center the data.


Step 2: Study Area Overview - 26 County Palouse Region

FIGURE 1: 26 county Palouse region study area.


Step 3: Summary Overview of Insurance Loss by Commodity: 1989 - 2015 for the Palouse

FIGURE 2: Breakdown of total insurance loss by COMMODITY for the 26 county Palouse region, from 1989 - 2015. In order to reduce our dataset analysis, we are limiting our examination to only the cropping systems that incurred the most revenue loss - which are: 1. Wheat; 2. Apples; 3. Cherries; and 4. Dry Peas


STEP 4: Total Revenue by Damage Cause, 1989 - 2015 for the Palouse

FIGURE 3: Breakdown of total insurance loss by DAMAGE CAUSE for the 26 county Palouse region, from 1989 - 2015. In order to reduce our dataset analysis, we are limiting our examination to only the DAMAGE CAUSES that are incurred by the combination of the FOUR main commodities: wheat, apples, cherries, and dry peas.


STEP 5: Damage Cause Overview for EACH of the four top commodities


Top Damage Causes for APPLES, 1989-2015 for the Palouse Region


FIGURE 4. In the bar plot above, 1. Hail, 2. Frost, 3. Freeze, and 4. Cold Wet Weather are the predominant causes for loss for APPLES. The interaction plot above also shows that hail damage causes are tending to be quite high in 2006, 2012, and 2015.


Top Damage Causes for WHEAT, 1989-2015 for the Palouse Region

FIGURE 5: In the bar plot above, 1. Drought, 2. Heat, 3. Decline in Price, 4. Frost, 5. Hail, and 6. Freeze are the predominant causes for loss for WHEAT. The interaction plot above also shows


Top Damage Causes for CHERRIES, 1989-2015 for the Palouse Region

FIGURE 6: In the barplot above, 1. Excessive Moisture/Precipitation/Rain, 2. Freeze, 3. Frost, 4. Cold Wet Weather, are the predominant causes for loss for CHERRIES. The interaction plot shows


Top Damage Causes for DRY PEAS, 1989-2015 for the Palouse Region

FIGURE 7: In the bar plot above, 1. Drought, 2. Heat, 3. Hail, 4. Excessive Mositure/Precipitation/Rain, are the predominant causes for loss for DRY PEAS. The interaction plot shows


Step 6: Exploratory Data Analysis


APPLES Insurance revenue loss relationships compared to damage cause, year, and county

FIGURE 8: Apples distributions for 2001-2015 for the 26 county palouse region, by damage cause, year, and county

WHEAT Insurance revenue loss relationships compared to damage cause, year, and county

FIGURE 9: Wheat distributions for 2001-2015 for the 26 county palouse region, by damage cause, year, and county

CHERRIES Insurance revenue loss relationships compared to damage cause, year, and county

FIGURE 10: Cherries distributions for 2001-2015 for the 26 county palouse region, by damage cause, year, and county

DRY PEAS Insurance revenue loss relationships compared to damage cause, year, and county

FIGURE 11: Dry Peas distributions for 2001-2015 for the 26 county palouse region, by damage cause, year, and county

Step 7: Missing Data Examination


WHEAT Missing Data examination by damage cause, year, and county, using two dimensions

APPLES Missing Data examination by damage cause, year, and county, using two dimensions

CHERRIES Missing Data examination by damage cause, year, and county, using two dimensions

DRY PEAS Missing Data examination by damage cause, year, and county, using two dimensions

Step 8: Filling in missing data and other transforms for model runs

In this step, we fill in missing data for damage cause where commodity loss exists in a county. For example, if wheat is grown in a county for a particular year, but NO wheat loss claims were submitted - we consider this a zero (there where zero claims - vs this data being missing). We do this in order to ensure that we have as complete a dataset as possible.


Step 9: Hurdle Mixed Models

Hurdle model techniques allow us to address zero inflated datasets, by first running a logstical regression model to determine the probability of zeros occuring. Then we use the non-zero values in a separate, mixed model. In this instance, we use county as a random effect.

In our two part hurdle model, we identify zero values - that is, counties and years that have zero loss for particular damage causes for apples. Previously we removed counties that we have determined have no apples being grown - based on known crop yield data. The counties we are identifying are those where we KNOW apples are being grown, but in some instances, there are no loss claims being filed in particular years.

As such, these are not missing data, but actual zero values that we do not want to exclude from our model. However we want to be able to use a normalized distribution that is not positively skewed/zero inflated.


Hurdle Model - APPLES

Here we run our hurdle technique for APPLES, using a generalized linear model with a binomal function to delineate between zero and non-zero values. Given this model, Is our data normally distributed? What (if any) outliers exist? Are residuals well distributed - indicating normality?

##          llh      llhNull           G2     McFadden         r2ML 
## -297.6154204 -473.1882133  351.1455859    0.3710422    0.3798222 
##         r2CU 
##    0.5245698
## 
##  Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness of fit (GOF) test
## 
## data:  alllevs2_apples$non_zero, fitted(m1)
## X-squared = 10.439, df = 8, p-value = 0.2356

FIGURE 12: Apples Non-zero Goodness of fit hoslem test


Now plot this Apples zero/non-zero bionomal model to see outliers and the zeros vs non-zeros.


FIGURE 13: Apples zero/non-zero bionomal model to see outliers and zeros values vs non-zero values.

##                                   GVIF Df GVIF^(1/(2*Df))
## year                             1.164 14           1.005
## damagecause            80589335779.706  6           8.107
## county                       15393.188  6           2.233
## damagecause:county 227037485053054.625 36           1.583

FIGURE 14: Apples multi-collinearity test for our binomal model.


## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = non_zero ~ year + damagecause * county, family = binomial(link = logit), 
##     data = alllevs2_apples)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -2.4991  -0.6581  -0.2455   0.6389   2.8325  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                         Estimate
## (Intercept)                                -1.911766275453498976
## year2002                                   -0.296492890701479161
## year2003                                    0.145706312891135559
## year2004                                   -0.761171384476088009
## year2005                                   -0.147263314168601001
## year2006                                   -0.448161974100270144
## year2007                                   -0.448161974100266203
## year2008                                   -1.092403236758539675
## year2009                                    0.719832845216727635
## year2010                                   -0.448161974100271643
## year2011                                    0.576970587656701173
## year2012                                   -1.855697555043593683
## year2013                                    1.006123780412798263
## year2014                                   -1.267668212480720147
## year2015                                    1.295604498595899434
## damagecauseCold Winter                     -0.813719026367579867
## damagecauseDrought                        -16.670795162752238383
## damagecauseFreeze                           2.267669275735777035
## damagecauseFrost                            3.693810087347036308
## damagecauseHail                             1.312972511828845334
## damagecauseHeat                             0.000000000000003276
## countyBenton                                2.581906773919941944
## countyDouglas                               0.950616770460329441
## countyFranklin                              2.267669275735789025
## countyGrant                                 1.958323056779491145
## countyUmatilla                              2.267669275735781476
## countyWalla Walla                           1.312972511828841560
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenton        -1.768187747552346423
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenton            -2.581906774552121142
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenton             -1.155765962308678008
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenton              -2.581906773919936615
## damagecauseHail:countyBenton               -1.936556228969291249
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenton               -2.050748679623238591
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyDouglas       -0.950616770460338656
## damagecauseDrought:countyDouglas           14.906459365924293436
## damagecauseFreeze:countyDouglas            -1.259962989416622214
## damagecauseFrost:countyDouglas             -1.732135218393414666
## damagecauseHail:countyDouglas              -0.619785795977902620
## damagecauseHeat:countyDouglas              -0.419458676163631916
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyFranklin      -1.453950249368198833
## damagecauseDrought:countyFranklin          -2.267669276370001263
## damagecauseFreeze:countyFranklin           -0.841528464124530418
## damagecauseFrost:countyFranklin            -2.267669275735786805
## damagecauseHail:countyFranklin             -0.998735013644691971
## damagecauseHeat:countyFranklin             -2.267669275735781031
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant         -1.958323056779501359
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant             -1.958323057407937995
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant              -0.951714822318446285
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant               -1.426154581047994974
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                -0.359003929194383897
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                -1.958323056779487814
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla      -1.453950249368192837
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla          -2.267669276368539766
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla           -1.261061041274742056
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla            -3.049187723668870476
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla             -2.267669275735785472
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla             -2.267669275735777923
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla   -1.312972511828849775
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla       -1.312972512461034746
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla        -2.267669275735777035
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla         -4.056165828715558419
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla          -2.625945023657682675
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla          -1.312972511828838007
##                                                       Std. Error z value
## (Intercept)                                 0.872956650103049347  -2.190
## year2002                                    0.545003964148443543  -0.544
## year2003                                    0.539939138134612917   0.270
## year2004                                    0.555335276497485375  -1.371
## year2005                                    0.542821927559994144  -0.271
## year2006                                    0.547756927998779619  -0.818
## year2007                                    0.547756927998778953  -0.818
## year2008                                    0.566612520349545901  -1.928
## year2009                                    0.539281639708378724   1.335
## year2010                                    0.547756927998779619  -0.818
## year2011                                    0.538836225185700846   1.071
## year2012                                    0.610095709362365235  -3.042
## year2013                                    0.541449940600746915   1.858
## year2014                                    0.574191168755926462  -2.208
## year2015                                    0.545536228072138307   2.375
## damagecauseCold Winter                      1.319665926255276345  -0.617
## damagecauseDrought                       1588.404682624609904451  -0.010
## damagecauseFreeze                           0.968571951096577788   2.341
## damagecauseFrost                            1.047652421185483851   3.526
## damagecauseHail                             0.983928313989815062   1.334
## damagecauseHeat                             1.116243640191318498   0.000
## countyBenton                                0.974504964421534559   2.649
## countyDouglas                               1.004500237041336286   0.946
## countyFranklin                              0.968571951096581452   2.341
## countyGrant                                 0.967994122548203384   2.023
## countyUmatilla                              0.968571951096579675   2.341
## countyWalla Walla                           0.983928313989814063   1.334
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenton         1.639781933685468207  -1.078
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenton          2246.343378414106155105  -0.001
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenton              1.310980993606898348  -0.882
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenton               1.369057088696661317  -1.886
## damagecauseHail:countyBenton                1.265052862040041859  -1.531
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenton                1.425678457600531246  -1.438
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyDouglas        1.801533938639166443  -0.528
## damagecauseDrought:countyDouglas         1588.405155571784689528   0.009
## damagecauseFreeze:countyDouglas             1.276690740680679337  -0.987
## damagecauseFrost:countyDouglas              1.347510681767840168  -1.285
## damagecauseHail:countyDouglas               1.293312425659092435  -0.479
## damagecauseHeat:countyDouglas               1.446820491910578044  -0.290
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyFranklin       1.636324356604436758  -0.889
## damagecauseDrought:countyFranklin        2246.343375850066877319  -0.001
## damagecauseFreeze:countyFranklin            1.306964727964921691  -0.644
## damagecauseFrost:countyFranklin             1.364840287681823083  -1.661
## damagecauseHail:countyFranklin              1.264082838521848773  -0.790
## damagecauseHeat:countyFranklin              1.477880742387085000  -1.534
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant          1.781436618895128055  -1.099
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant           2246.343375597620706685  -0.001
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant               1.276845294146106369  -0.745
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                1.422493174191510334  -1.003
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                 1.273008588835026655  -0.282
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                 1.477502110169536920  -1.325
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla       1.636324356604434094  -0.889
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla        2246.343375848281993967  -0.001
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla            1.277014619185067978  -0.988
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla             1.321574149005342758  -2.307
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla              1.274806607014817184  -1.779
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla              1.477880742387085222  -1.534
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla    1.790144891600531807  -0.733
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla     2246.343382522070442064  -0.001
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla         1.274806607014815851  -1.779
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla          1.352393169198307765  -2.999
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla           1.392644815873095077  -1.886
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla           1.487990185229191464  -0.882
##                                          Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                              0.028525 *  
## year2002                                 0.586428    
## year2003                                 0.787270    
## year2004                                 0.170483    
## year2005                                 0.786166    
## year2006                                 0.413256    
## year2007                                 0.413256    
## year2008                                 0.053861 .  
## year2009                                 0.181942    
## year2010                                 0.413256    
## year2011                                 0.284272    
## year2012                                 0.002353 ** 
## year2013                                 0.063140 .  
## year2014                                 0.027262 *  
## year2015                                 0.017553 *  
## damagecauseCold Winter                   0.537492    
## damagecauseDrought                       0.991626    
## damagecauseFreeze                        0.019219 *  
## damagecauseFrost                         0.000422 ***
## damagecauseHail                          0.182067    
## damagecauseHeat                          1.000000    
## countyBenton                             0.008062 ** 
## countyDouglas                            0.343966    
## countyFranklin                           0.019219 *  
## countyGrant                              0.043066 *  
## countyUmatilla                           0.019219 *  
## countyWalla Walla                        0.182067    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenton      0.280897    
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenton          0.999083    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenton           0.377991    
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenton            0.059308 .  
## damagecauseHail:countyBenton             0.125816    
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenton             0.150310    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyDouglas     0.597728    
## damagecauseDrought:countyDouglas         0.992512    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyDouglas          0.323693    
## damagecauseFrost:countyDouglas           0.198641    
## damagecauseHail:countyDouglas            0.631780    
## damagecauseHeat:countyDouglas            0.771879    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyFranklin    0.374247    
## damagecauseDrought:countyFranklin        0.999195    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyFranklin         0.519653    
## damagecauseFrost:countyFranklin          0.096615 .  
## damagecauseHail:countyFranklin           0.429477    
## damagecauseHeat:countyFranklin           0.124930    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant       0.271640    
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant           0.999304    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant            0.456052    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant             0.316066    
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant              0.777934    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant              0.185029    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla    0.374247    
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla        0.999195    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla         0.323394    
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla          0.021041 *  
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla           0.075267 .  
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla           0.124930    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla 0.463287    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla     0.999534    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla      0.075267 .  
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla       0.002706 ** 
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla        0.059351 .  
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla        0.377571    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 946.38  on 734  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 595.23  on 672  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 721.23
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 17


FIGURE 14: Apples binomal model summary


Now subset to just those APPLES observations with a loss greater than zero (so all non-zeros), and run a linear regression (switched to log loss due to outliers), to make sure that our residuals and other parameters suggest normality.

## Linear mixed model fit by REML ['lmerMod']
## Formula: log(loss) ~ year + damagecause + (1 | county)
##    Data: subset(alllevs2_apples, non_zero == 1)
## 
## REML criterion at convergence: 880.7
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -2.6105 -0.5833  0.1281  0.6038  3.2595 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups   Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  county   (Intercept) 0.4085   0.6391  
##  Residual             1.9353   1.3912  
## Number of obs: 253, groups:  county, 7
## 
## Fixed effects:
##                        Estimate Std. Error t value
## (Intercept)             10.0015     0.4420  22.627
## year2002                -0.5154     0.4851  -1.062
## year2003                 0.7557     0.4627   1.633
## year2004                -0.8494     0.5155  -1.648
## year2005                 0.4481     0.4732   0.947
## year2006                 0.6558     0.4989   1.315
## year2007                 1.3272     0.4906   2.705
## year2008                 0.3012     0.5431   0.555
## year2009                 1.4475     0.4465   3.242
## year2010                 0.6472     0.4902   1.320
## year2011                 0.5794     0.4467   1.297
## year2012                 0.8257     0.6462   1.278
## year2013                 1.9262     0.4366   4.412
## year2014                 1.1395     0.5637   2.021
## year2015                 1.5109     0.4388   3.444
## damagecauseCold Winter  -0.9218     0.5054  -1.824
## damagecauseDrought      -2.0524     1.4496  -1.416
## damagecauseFreeze        0.1111     0.2829   0.393
## damagecauseFrost         0.1800     0.2760   0.652
## damagecauseHail          0.5523     0.3164   1.746
## damagecauseHeat         -0.8392     0.4382  -1.915


FIGURE 18: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.



FIGURE 19: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Finally, we examine the APPLES model coefficent estimates of our model output.


FIGURE 20: Apples mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Hurdle Model - WHEAT

Here we run our hurdle technique for WHEAT Is our data normally distributed? What (if any) outliers exist? Are residuals well distributed - indicating normality?

##           llh       llhNull            G2      McFadden          r2ML 
## -1392.6347080 -1967.6122795  1149.9551430     0.2922210     0.3184041 
##          r2CU 
##     0.4357824
## 
##  Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness of fit (GOF) test
## 
## data:  alllevs2_wheat$non_zero, fitted(m1)
## X-squared = 8.0966, df = 8, p-value = 0.4241


FIGURE 21: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Checking fo multi collinearity

##                    GVIF  Df GVIF^(1/(2*Df))
## year                NaN  14             NaN
## damagecause         NaN   7             NaN
## county              NaN  24             NaN
## damagecause:county  NaN 168             NaN


FIGURE 22: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = non_zero ~ year + damagecause * county, family = binomial(link = logit), 
##     data = alllevs2_wheat)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -2.6627  -0.8038   0.2544   0.7952   2.3466  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                  Estimate  Std. Error
## (Intercept)                                      0.940273    0.689319
## year2002                                         0.029839    0.244296
## year2003                                        -0.521967    0.248805
## year2004                                        -0.029897    0.244533
## year2005                                        -0.364604    0.246987
## year2006                                         0.746722    0.246348
## year2007                                        -0.150204    0.245195
## year2008                                         1.126649    0.251419
## year2009                                         1.329795    0.255432
## year2010                                         0.996808    0.249345
## year2011                                         0.326554    0.244030
## year2012                                         1.126649    0.251419
## year2013                                         1.823089    0.269599
## year2014                                         1.260794    0.253960
## year2015                                         1.159745    0.252008
## damagecauseCold Winter                          17.169472 1600.457625
## damagecauseDecline in Price                     -0.406576    0.906276
## damagecauseDrought                              17.169473 1600.457590
## damagecauseFreeze                               17.169473 1600.457611
## damagecauseFrost                                17.169473 1600.457622
## damagecauseHail                                 -1.681886    0.865506
## damagecauseHeat                                 17.169473 1600.457629
## countyAsotin                                    -2.305719    0.883687
## countyBenewah                                   -1.681886    0.865506
## countyBenton                                    -2.305719    0.883687
## countyClearwater                                -1.077635    0.871151
## countyColumbia                                  -1.986128    0.871144
## countyDouglas                                   -1.382247    0.865513
## countyFranklin                                  -1.077635    0.871151
## countyGarfield                                  -2.305719    0.883687
## countyGilliam                                   -1.986128    0.871144
## countyGrant                                     -1.382247    0.865513
## countyIdaho                                     -0.757356    0.883656
## countyLatah                                     -1.077635    0.871151
## countyLewis                                     -0.757356    0.883656
## countyLincoln                                   -1.077635    0.871151
## countyMorrow                                    -1.681886    0.865506
## countyNez Perce                                 -1.382247    0.865513
## countySherman                                   -1.986128    0.871144
## countySpokane                                   -1.382247    0.865513
## countyUmatilla                                  -1.077635    0.871151
## countyUnion                                     -1.986128    0.871144
## countyWalla Walla                               -0.757356    0.883656
## countyWallowa                                   -1.681886    0.865506
## countyWasco                                     -1.382247    0.865513
## countyWhitman                                   -1.077635    0.871151
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyAsotin            -16.545639 1600.457823
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyAsotin         0.726167    1.209533
## damagecauseDrought:countyAsotin                -13.549133 1600.458038
## damagecauseFreeze:countyAsotin                 -17.169473 1600.457819
## damagecauseFrost:countyAsotin                  -17.924943 1600.457866
## damagecauseHail:countyAsotin                     2.001477    1.179357
## damagecauseHeat:countyAsotin                   -13.549133 1600.458077
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenewah           -16.869833 1600.457813
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenewah       -0.217257    1.205548
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenewah               -14.970792 1600.457874
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenewah                -17.169473 1600.457799
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenewah                 -16.869834 1600.457810
## damagecauseHail:countyBenewah                   -0.213320    1.286916
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenewah                  -15.894162 1600.457840
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenton            -15.270329 1600.457846
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenton         1.330048    1.205740
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenton                -14.346959 1600.457884
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenton                 -15.621110 1600.457819
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenton                  -16.246001 1600.457820
## damagecauseHail:countyBenton                    -0.386697    1.477061
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenton                   -15.621110 1600.457837
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyClearwater        -18.747433 1600.457839
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyClearwater    -1.171385    1.226445
## damagecauseDrought:countyClearwater            -17.169473 1600.457784
## damagecauseFreeze:countyClearwater             -19.153027 1600.457849
## damagecauseFrost:countyClearwater              -19.153027 1600.457859
## damagecauseHail:countyClearwater                 1.077635    1.165999
## damagecauseHeat:countyClearwater               -17.169473 1600.457823
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyColumbia          -17.489063 1600.457826
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyColumbia       1.315069    1.200825
## damagecauseDrought:countyColumbia              -14.666550 1600.457877
## damagecauseFreeze:countyColumbia               -16.865230 1600.457802
## damagecauseFrost:countyColumbia                -16.565591 1600.457813
## damagecauseHail:countyColumbia                   0.606825    1.227182
## damagecauseHeat:countyColumbia                 -14.666550 1600.457916
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyDouglas           -15.270431 1600.457909
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyDouglas        0.406576    1.192629
## damagecauseDrought:countyDouglas                 1.382247 2263.388820
## damagecauseFreeze:countyDouglas                -15.270431 1600.457895
## damagecauseFrost:countyDouglas                 -14.472605 1600.458060
## damagecauseHail:countyDouglas                    1.078005    1.165852
## damagecauseHeat:countyDouglas                  -15.270431 1600.457913
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyFranklin          -14.777217 1600.458067
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyFranklin       1.077635    1.226779
## damagecauseDrought:countyFranklin                1.077635 2263.388822
## damagecauseFreeze:countyFranklin               -16.091838 1600.457848
## damagecauseFrost:countyFranklin                -14.777217 1600.458063
## damagecauseHail:countyFranklin                   1.077635    1.165999
## damagecauseHeat:countyFranklin                   1.077635 2263.388849
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGarfield          -17.924943 1600.457869
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGarfield       1.330048    1.205740
## damagecauseDrought:countyGarfield              -13.549133 1600.458038
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGarfield               -15.941388 1600.457812
## damagecauseFrost:countyGarfield                -16.849882 1600.457823
## damagecauseHail:countyGarfield                   1.681886    1.188466
## damagecauseHeat:countyGarfield                 -13.549133 1600.458077
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGilliam           -17.489063 1600.457826
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGilliam        1.315069    1.200825
## damagecauseDrought:countyGilliam               -13.868724 1600.458031
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGilliam                -16.865230 1600.457802
## damagecauseFrost:countyGilliam                 -17.489064 1600.457823
## damagecauseHail:countyGilliam                    1.362295    1.179203
## damagecauseHeat:countyGilliam                    1.986128 2263.388849
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant             -16.193801 1600.457836
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant          1.031466    1.206028
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant                   1.382247 2263.388819
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                  -14.472605 1600.458049
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                     1.382247 2263.388842
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                      0.758414    1.175116
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                    -14.472605 1600.458067
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyIdaho             -17.794363 1600.457823
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyIdaho         -0.822196    1.209918
## damagecauseDrought:countyIdaho                 -15.895322 1600.457884
## damagecauseFreeze:countyIdaho                  -18.398244 1600.457812
## damagecauseFrost:countyIdaho                   -17.169473 1600.457830
## damagecauseHail:countyIdaho                      1.056995    1.175493
## damagecauseHeat:countyIdaho                    -16.412116 1600.457873
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLatah             -17.773724 1600.457816
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLatah          0.101963    1.196778
## damagecauseDrought:countyLatah                 -15.575044 1600.457877
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLatah                  -17.474085 1600.457802
## damagecauseFrost:countyLatah                   -17.773724 1600.457813
## damagecauseHail:countyLatah                      0.453802    1.179308
## damagecauseHeat:countyLatah                    -16.091838 1600.457866
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLewis             -18.094002 1600.457823
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLewis         -0.218315    1.205962
## damagecauseDrought:countyLewis                   0.757356 2263.388827
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLewis                  -18.717835 1600.457819
## damagecauseFrost:countyLewis                   -17.794363 1600.457820
## damagecauseHail:countyLewis                      0.453114    1.179417
## damagecauseHeat:countyLewis                    -16.412116 1600.457873
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLincoln           -16.091838 1600.457862
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLincoln        1.077635    1.226779
## damagecauseDrought:countyLincoln                 1.077635 2263.388822
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLincoln                  1.077635 2263.388837
## damagecauseFrost:countyLincoln                   1.077635 2263.388844
## damagecauseHail:countyLincoln                    2.352945    1.197112
## damagecauseHeat:countyLincoln                    1.077635 2263.388849
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyMorrow            -17.169472 1600.457813
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyMorrow         1.681886    1.222777
## damagecauseDrought:countyMorrow                -14.172966 1600.458028
## damagecauseFreeze:countyMorrow                 -15.487587 1600.457845
## damagecauseFrost:countyMorrow                  -15.894162 1600.457832
## damagecauseHail:countyMorrow                     1.377644    1.165830
## damagecauseHeat:countyMorrow                   -14.172966 1600.458067
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyNez Perce         -16.864860 1600.457816
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyNez Perce      0.406576    1.192629
## damagecauseDrought:countyNez Perce               1.382247 2263.388820
## damagecauseFreeze:countyNez Perce              -17.469112 1600.457799
## damagecauseFrost:countyNez Perce               -17.773354 1600.457813
## damagecauseHail:countyNez Perce                  1.382247    1.161793
## damagecauseHeat:countyNez Perce                -15.787226 1600.457863
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySherman           -17.169472 1600.457819
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySherman        1.986128    1.226774
## damagecauseDrought:countySherman               -13.868724 1600.458031
## damagecauseFreeze:countySherman                -16.565591 1600.457802
## damagecauseFrost:countySherman                 -18.760437 1600.457909
## damagecauseHail:countySherman                   -0.706288    1.469672
## damagecauseHeat:countySherman                  -13.868724 1600.458070
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySpokane           -16.544582 1600.457823
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySpokane        0.711188    1.196811
## damagecauseDrought:countySpokane                 1.382247 2263.388820
## damagecauseFreeze:countySpokane                -16.544582 1600.457809
## damagecauseFrost:countySpokane                 -16.193801 1600.457832
## damagecauseHail:countySpokane                    1.681886    1.161950
## damagecauseHeat:countySpokane                    1.382247 2263.388847
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla          -16.849194 1600.457826
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla       1.484210    1.257125
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla              -14.777217 1600.458031
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla               -14.777217 1600.458053
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla                -14.777217 1600.458063
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                   1.681886    1.170467
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                   1.077635 2263.388849
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUnion             -16.565591 1600.457816
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUnion          0.406576    1.200477
## damagecauseDrought:countyUnion                 -14.666550 1600.457877
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUnion                  -15.940701 1600.457812
## damagecauseFrost:countyUnion                   -16.260979 1600.457816
## damagecauseHail:countyUnion                      2.590379    1.170565
## damagecauseHeat:countyUnion                    -13.868724 1600.458070
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla       -17.169472 1600.457833
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla    0.086297    1.210064
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla           -15.097496 1600.458038
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla            -16.818692 1600.457832
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla             -15.895322 1600.457916
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla                0.133523    1.188607
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla                0.757356 2263.388854
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWallowa           -18.143182 1600.457836
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWallowa       -0.217257    1.205548
## damagecauseDrought:countyWallowa               -16.244943 1600.457788
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWallowa                -18.143182 1600.457822
## damagecauseFrost:countyWallowa                 -17.473715 1600.457813
## damagecauseHail:countyWallowa                    1.058053    1.175077
## damagecauseHeat:countyWallowa                  -16.565221 1600.457820
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWasco             -17.469111 1600.457813
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWasco          1.031466    1.206028
## damagecauseDrought:countyWasco                 -15.270431 1600.457874
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWasco                  -16.193801 1600.457822
## damagecauseFrost:countyWasco                   -17.773354 1600.457813
## damagecauseHail:countyWasco                      0.002944    1.223318
## damagecauseHeat:countyWasco                    -14.472605 1600.458067
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWhitman           -16.498413 1600.457839
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWhitman        1.077635    1.226779
## damagecauseDrought:countyWhitman                 1.077635 2263.388822
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWhitman                -16.498414 1600.457825
## damagecauseFrost:countyWhitman                 -14.777217 1600.458063
## damagecauseHail:countyWhitman                    1.681886    1.170467
## damagecauseHeat:countyWhitman                    1.077635 2263.388849
##                                               z value        Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                                     1.364         0.17255    
## year2002                                        0.122         0.90278    
## year2003                                       -2.098         0.03591 *  
## year2004                                       -0.122         0.90269    
## year2005                                       -1.476         0.13989    
## year2006                                        3.031         0.00244 ** 
## year2007                                       -0.613         0.54015    
## year2008                                        4.481 0.0000074238141 ***
## year2009                                        5.206 0.0000001928975 ***
## year2010                                        3.998 0.0000639570033 ***
## year2011                                        1.338         0.18084    
## year2012                                        4.481 0.0000074238141 ***
## year2013                                        6.762 0.0000000000136 ***
## year2014                                        4.965 0.0000006886671 ***
## year2015                                        4.602 0.0000041840555 ***
## damagecauseCold Winter                          0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseDecline in Price                    -0.449         0.65370    
## damagecauseDrought                              0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseFreeze                               0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseFrost                                0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseHail                                -1.943         0.05199 .  
## damagecauseHeat                                 0.011         0.99144    
## countyAsotin                                   -2.609         0.00908 ** 
## countyBenewah                                  -1.943         0.05199 .  
## countyBenton                                   -2.609         0.00908 ** 
## countyClearwater                               -1.237         0.21608    
## countyColumbia                                 -2.280         0.02261 *  
## countyDouglas                                  -1.597         0.11026    
## countyFranklin                                 -1.237         0.21608    
## countyGarfield                                 -2.609         0.00908 ** 
## countyGilliam                                  -2.280         0.02261 *  
## countyGrant                                    -1.597         0.11026    
## countyIdaho                                    -0.857         0.39141    
## countyLatah                                    -1.237         0.21608    
## countyLewis                                    -0.857         0.39141    
## countyLincoln                                  -1.237         0.21608    
## countyMorrow                                   -1.943         0.05199 .  
## countyNez Perce                                -1.597         0.11026    
## countySherman                                  -2.280         0.02261 *  
## countySpokane                                  -1.597         0.11026    
## countyUmatilla                                 -1.237         0.21608    
## countyUnion                                    -2.280         0.02261 *  
## countyWalla Walla                              -0.857         0.39141    
## countyWallowa                                  -1.943         0.05199 .  
## countyWasco                                    -1.597         0.11026    
## countyWhitman                                  -1.237         0.21608    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyAsotin            -0.010         0.99175    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyAsotin        0.600         0.54826    
## damagecauseDrought:countyAsotin                -0.008         0.99325    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyAsotin                 -0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseFrost:countyAsotin                  -0.011         0.99106    
## damagecauseHail:countyAsotin                    1.697         0.08968 .  
## damagecauseHeat:countyAsotin                   -0.008         0.99325    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenewah           -0.011         0.99159    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenewah      -0.180         0.85698    
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenewah               -0.009         0.99254    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenewah                -0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenewah                 -0.011         0.99159    
## damagecauseHail:countyBenewah                  -0.166         0.86835    
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenewah                  -0.010         0.99208    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenton            -0.010         0.99239    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenton        1.103         0.26999    
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenton                -0.009         0.99285    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenton                 -0.010         0.99221    
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenton                  -0.010         0.99190    
## damagecauseHail:countyBenton                   -0.262         0.79347    
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenton                   -0.010         0.99221    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyClearwater        -0.012         0.99065    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyClearwater   -0.955         0.33952    
## damagecauseDrought:countyClearwater            -0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyClearwater             -0.012         0.99045    
## damagecauseFrost:countyClearwater              -0.012         0.99045    
## damagecauseHail:countyClearwater                0.924         0.35537    
## damagecauseHeat:countyClearwater               -0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyColumbia          -0.011         0.99128    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyColumbia      1.095         0.27346    
## damagecauseDrought:countyColumbia              -0.009         0.99269    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyColumbia               -0.011         0.99159    
## damagecauseFrost:countyColumbia                -0.010         0.99174    
## damagecauseHail:countyColumbia                  0.494         0.62096    
## damagecauseHeat:countyColumbia                 -0.009         0.99269    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyDouglas           -0.010         0.99239    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyDouglas       0.341         0.73317    
## damagecauseDrought:countyDouglas                0.001         0.99951    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyDouglas                -0.010         0.99239    
## damagecauseFrost:countyDouglas                 -0.009         0.99278    
## damagecauseHail:countyDouglas                   0.925         0.35515    
## damagecauseHeat:countyDouglas                  -0.010         0.99239    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyFranklin          -0.009         0.99263    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyFranklin      0.878         0.37971    
## damagecauseDrought:countyFranklin               0.000         0.99962    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyFranklin               -0.010         0.99198    
## damagecauseFrost:countyFranklin                -0.009         0.99263    
## damagecauseHail:countyFranklin                  0.924         0.35537    
## damagecauseHeat:countyFranklin                  0.000         0.99962    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGarfield          -0.011         0.99106    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGarfield      1.103         0.26999    
## damagecauseDrought:countyGarfield              -0.008         0.99325    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGarfield               -0.010         0.99205    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGarfield                -0.011         0.99160    
## damagecauseHail:countyGarfield                  1.415         0.15702    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGarfield                 -0.008         0.99325    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGilliam           -0.011         0.99128    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGilliam       1.095         0.27346    
## damagecauseDrought:countyGilliam               -0.009         0.99309    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGilliam                -0.011         0.99159    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGilliam                 -0.011         0.99128    
## damagecauseHail:countyGilliam                   1.155         0.24798    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGilliam                   0.001         0.99930    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant             -0.010         0.99193    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant         0.855         0.39241    
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant                  0.001         0.99951    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                  -0.009         0.99278    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                    0.001         0.99951    
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                     0.645         0.51867    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                    -0.009         0.99278    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyIdaho             -0.011         0.99113    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyIdaho        -0.680         0.49679    
## damagecauseDrought:countyIdaho                 -0.010         0.99208    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyIdaho                  -0.011         0.99083    
## damagecauseFrost:countyIdaho                   -0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseHail:countyIdaho                     0.899         0.36855    
## damagecauseHeat:countyIdaho                    -0.010         0.99182    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLatah             -0.011         0.99114    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLatah         0.085         0.93210    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLatah                 -0.010         0.99224    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLatah                  -0.011         0.99129    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLatah                   -0.011         0.99114    
## damagecauseHail:countyLatah                     0.385         0.70038    
## damagecauseHeat:countyLatah                    -0.010         0.99198    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLewis             -0.011         0.99098    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLewis        -0.181         0.85634    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLewis                  0.000         0.99973    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLewis                  -0.012         0.99067    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLewis                   -0.011         0.99113    
## damagecauseHail:countyLewis                     0.384         0.70084    
## damagecauseHeat:countyLewis                    -0.010         0.99182    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLincoln           -0.010         0.99198    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLincoln       0.878         0.37971    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLincoln                0.000         0.99962    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLincoln                 0.000         0.99962    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLincoln                  0.000         0.99962    
## damagecauseHail:countyLincoln                   1.966         0.04935 *  
## damagecauseHeat:countyLincoln                   0.000         0.99962    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyMorrow            -0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyMorrow        1.375         0.16899    
## damagecauseDrought:countyMorrow                -0.009         0.99293    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyMorrow                 -0.010         0.99228    
## damagecauseFrost:countyMorrow                  -0.010         0.99208    
## damagecauseHail:countyMorrow                    1.182         0.23733    
## damagecauseHeat:countyMorrow                   -0.009         0.99293    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyNez Perce         -0.011         0.99159    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyNez Perce     0.341         0.73317    
## damagecauseDrought:countyNez Perce              0.001         0.99951    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyNez Perce              -0.011         0.99129    
## damagecauseFrost:countyNez Perce               -0.011         0.99114    
## damagecauseHail:countyNez Perce                 1.190         0.23414    
## damagecauseHeat:countyNez Perce                -0.010         0.99213    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySherman           -0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySherman       1.619         0.10545    
## damagecauseDrought:countySherman               -0.009         0.99309    
## damagecauseFreeze:countySherman                -0.010         0.99174    
## damagecauseFrost:countySherman                 -0.012         0.99065    
## damagecauseHail:countySherman                  -0.481         0.63082    
## damagecauseHeat:countySherman                  -0.009         0.99309    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySpokane           -0.010         0.99175    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySpokane       0.594         0.55235    
## damagecauseDrought:countySpokane                0.001         0.99951    
## damagecauseFreeze:countySpokane                -0.010         0.99175    
## damagecauseFrost:countySpokane                 -0.010         0.99193    
## damagecauseHail:countySpokane                   1.447         0.14777    
## damagecauseHeat:countySpokane                   0.001         0.99951    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla          -0.011         0.99160    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla      1.181         0.23775    
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla              -0.009         0.99263    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla               -0.009         0.99263    
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla                -0.009         0.99263    
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                  1.437         0.15074    
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                  0.000         0.99962    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUnion             -0.010         0.99174    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUnion         0.339         0.73485    
## damagecauseDrought:countyUnion                 -0.009         0.99269    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUnion                  -0.010         0.99205    
## damagecauseFrost:countyUnion                   -0.010         0.99189    
## damagecauseHail:countyUnion                     2.213         0.02690 *  
## damagecauseHeat:countyUnion                    -0.009         0.99309    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla       -0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla   0.071         0.94315    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla           -0.009         0.99247    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla            -0.011         0.99162    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla             -0.010         0.99208    
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla               0.112         0.91056    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla               0.000         0.99973    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWallowa           -0.011         0.99096    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWallowa      -0.180         0.85698    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWallowa               -0.010         0.99190    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWallowa                -0.011         0.99096    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWallowa                 -0.011         0.99129    
## damagecauseHail:countyWallowa                   0.900         0.36790    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWallowa                  -0.010         0.99174    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWasco             -0.011         0.99129    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWasco         0.855         0.39241    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWasco                 -0.010         0.99239    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWasco                  -0.010         0.99193    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWasco                   -0.011         0.99114    
## damagecauseHail:countyWasco                     0.002         0.99808    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWasco                    -0.009         0.99278    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWhitman           -0.010         0.99178    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWhitman       0.878         0.37971    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWhitman                0.000         0.99962    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWhitman                -0.010         0.99178    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWhitman                 -0.009         0.99263    
## damagecauseHail:countyWhitman                   1.437         0.15074    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWhitman                   0.000         0.99962    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 3935.2  on 2999  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2785.3  on 2786  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 3213.3
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 17

FIGURE 23: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Now we run our WHEAT mixed model analysis for these zero values.


FIGURE 24: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Checking for mulit-collinearity for zero value run

##                    GVIF  Df GVIF^(1/(2*Df))
## year                NaN  14             NaN
## damagecause         NaN   7             NaN
## county              NaN  24             NaN
## damagecause:county  NaN 168             NaN


FIGURE 25: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = non_zero ~ year + damagecause * county, family = binomial(link = logit), 
##     data = alllevs2_wheat)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -2.6627  -0.8038   0.2544   0.7952   2.3466  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                  Estimate  Std. Error
## (Intercept)                                      0.940273    0.689319
## year2002                                         0.029839    0.244296
## year2003                                        -0.521967    0.248805
## year2004                                        -0.029897    0.244533
## year2005                                        -0.364604    0.246987
## year2006                                         0.746722    0.246348
## year2007                                        -0.150204    0.245195
## year2008                                         1.126649    0.251419
## year2009                                         1.329795    0.255432
## year2010                                         0.996808    0.249345
## year2011                                         0.326554    0.244030
## year2012                                         1.126649    0.251419
## year2013                                         1.823089    0.269599
## year2014                                         1.260794    0.253960
## year2015                                         1.159745    0.252008
## damagecauseCold Winter                          17.169472 1600.457625
## damagecauseDecline in Price                     -0.406576    0.906276
## damagecauseDrought                              17.169473 1600.457590
## damagecauseFreeze                               17.169473 1600.457611
## damagecauseFrost                                17.169473 1600.457622
## damagecauseHail                                 -1.681886    0.865506
## damagecauseHeat                                 17.169473 1600.457629
## countyAsotin                                    -2.305719    0.883687
## countyBenewah                                   -1.681886    0.865506
## countyBenton                                    -2.305719    0.883687
## countyClearwater                                -1.077635    0.871151
## countyColumbia                                  -1.986128    0.871144
## countyDouglas                                   -1.382247    0.865513
## countyFranklin                                  -1.077635    0.871151
## countyGarfield                                  -2.305719    0.883687
## countyGilliam                                   -1.986128    0.871144
## countyGrant                                     -1.382247    0.865513
## countyIdaho                                     -0.757356    0.883656
## countyLatah                                     -1.077635    0.871151
## countyLewis                                     -0.757356    0.883656
## countyLincoln                                   -1.077635    0.871151
## countyMorrow                                    -1.681886    0.865506
## countyNez Perce                                 -1.382247    0.865513
## countySherman                                   -1.986128    0.871144
## countySpokane                                   -1.382247    0.865513
## countyUmatilla                                  -1.077635    0.871151
## countyUnion                                     -1.986128    0.871144
## countyWalla Walla                               -0.757356    0.883656
## countyWallowa                                   -1.681886    0.865506
## countyWasco                                     -1.382247    0.865513
## countyWhitman                                   -1.077635    0.871151
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyAsotin            -16.545639 1600.457823
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyAsotin         0.726167    1.209533
## damagecauseDrought:countyAsotin                -13.549133 1600.458038
## damagecauseFreeze:countyAsotin                 -17.169473 1600.457819
## damagecauseFrost:countyAsotin                  -17.924943 1600.457866
## damagecauseHail:countyAsotin                     2.001477    1.179357
## damagecauseHeat:countyAsotin                   -13.549133 1600.458077
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenewah           -16.869833 1600.457813
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenewah       -0.217257    1.205548
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenewah               -14.970792 1600.457874
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenewah                -17.169473 1600.457799
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenewah                 -16.869834 1600.457810
## damagecauseHail:countyBenewah                   -0.213320    1.286916
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenewah                  -15.894162 1600.457840
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenton            -15.270329 1600.457846
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenton         1.330048    1.205740
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenton                -14.346959 1600.457884
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenton                 -15.621110 1600.457819
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenton                  -16.246001 1600.457820
## damagecauseHail:countyBenton                    -0.386697    1.477061
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenton                   -15.621110 1600.457837
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyClearwater        -18.747433 1600.457839
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyClearwater    -1.171385    1.226445
## damagecauseDrought:countyClearwater            -17.169473 1600.457784
## damagecauseFreeze:countyClearwater             -19.153027 1600.457849
## damagecauseFrost:countyClearwater              -19.153027 1600.457859
## damagecauseHail:countyClearwater                 1.077635    1.165999
## damagecauseHeat:countyClearwater               -17.169473 1600.457823
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyColumbia          -17.489063 1600.457826
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyColumbia       1.315069    1.200825
## damagecauseDrought:countyColumbia              -14.666550 1600.457877
## damagecauseFreeze:countyColumbia               -16.865230 1600.457802
## damagecauseFrost:countyColumbia                -16.565591 1600.457813
## damagecauseHail:countyColumbia                   0.606825    1.227182
## damagecauseHeat:countyColumbia                 -14.666550 1600.457916
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyDouglas           -15.270431 1600.457909
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyDouglas        0.406576    1.192629
## damagecauseDrought:countyDouglas                 1.382247 2263.388820
## damagecauseFreeze:countyDouglas                -15.270431 1600.457895
## damagecauseFrost:countyDouglas                 -14.472605 1600.458060
## damagecauseHail:countyDouglas                    1.078005    1.165852
## damagecauseHeat:countyDouglas                  -15.270431 1600.457913
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyFranklin          -14.777217 1600.458067
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyFranklin       1.077635    1.226779
## damagecauseDrought:countyFranklin                1.077635 2263.388822
## damagecauseFreeze:countyFranklin               -16.091838 1600.457848
## damagecauseFrost:countyFranklin                -14.777217 1600.458063
## damagecauseHail:countyFranklin                   1.077635    1.165999
## damagecauseHeat:countyFranklin                   1.077635 2263.388849
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGarfield          -17.924943 1600.457869
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGarfield       1.330048    1.205740
## damagecauseDrought:countyGarfield              -13.549133 1600.458038
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGarfield               -15.941388 1600.457812
## damagecauseFrost:countyGarfield                -16.849882 1600.457823
## damagecauseHail:countyGarfield                   1.681886    1.188466
## damagecauseHeat:countyGarfield                 -13.549133 1600.458077
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGilliam           -17.489063 1600.457826
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGilliam        1.315069    1.200825
## damagecauseDrought:countyGilliam               -13.868724 1600.458031
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGilliam                -16.865230 1600.457802
## damagecauseFrost:countyGilliam                 -17.489064 1600.457823
## damagecauseHail:countyGilliam                    1.362295    1.179203
## damagecauseHeat:countyGilliam                    1.986128 2263.388849
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant             -16.193801 1600.457836
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant          1.031466    1.206028
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant                   1.382247 2263.388819
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                  -14.472605 1600.458049
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                     1.382247 2263.388842
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                      0.758414    1.175116
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                    -14.472605 1600.458067
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyIdaho             -17.794363 1600.457823
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyIdaho         -0.822196    1.209918
## damagecauseDrought:countyIdaho                 -15.895322 1600.457884
## damagecauseFreeze:countyIdaho                  -18.398244 1600.457812
## damagecauseFrost:countyIdaho                   -17.169473 1600.457830
## damagecauseHail:countyIdaho                      1.056995    1.175493
## damagecauseHeat:countyIdaho                    -16.412116 1600.457873
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLatah             -17.773724 1600.457816
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLatah          0.101963    1.196778
## damagecauseDrought:countyLatah                 -15.575044 1600.457877
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLatah                  -17.474085 1600.457802
## damagecauseFrost:countyLatah                   -17.773724 1600.457813
## damagecauseHail:countyLatah                      0.453802    1.179308
## damagecauseHeat:countyLatah                    -16.091838 1600.457866
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLewis             -18.094002 1600.457823
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLewis         -0.218315    1.205962
## damagecauseDrought:countyLewis                   0.757356 2263.388827
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLewis                  -18.717835 1600.457819
## damagecauseFrost:countyLewis                   -17.794363 1600.457820
## damagecauseHail:countyLewis                      0.453114    1.179417
## damagecauseHeat:countyLewis                    -16.412116 1600.457873
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLincoln           -16.091838 1600.457862
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLincoln        1.077635    1.226779
## damagecauseDrought:countyLincoln                 1.077635 2263.388822
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLincoln                  1.077635 2263.388837
## damagecauseFrost:countyLincoln                   1.077635 2263.388844
## damagecauseHail:countyLincoln                    2.352945    1.197112
## damagecauseHeat:countyLincoln                    1.077635 2263.388849
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyMorrow            -17.169472 1600.457813
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyMorrow         1.681886    1.222777
## damagecauseDrought:countyMorrow                -14.172966 1600.458028
## damagecauseFreeze:countyMorrow                 -15.487587 1600.457845
## damagecauseFrost:countyMorrow                  -15.894162 1600.457832
## damagecauseHail:countyMorrow                     1.377644    1.165830
## damagecauseHeat:countyMorrow                   -14.172966 1600.458067
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyNez Perce         -16.864860 1600.457816
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyNez Perce      0.406576    1.192629
## damagecauseDrought:countyNez Perce               1.382247 2263.388820
## damagecauseFreeze:countyNez Perce              -17.469112 1600.457799
## damagecauseFrost:countyNez Perce               -17.773354 1600.457813
## damagecauseHail:countyNez Perce                  1.382247    1.161793
## damagecauseHeat:countyNez Perce                -15.787226 1600.457863
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySherman           -17.169472 1600.457819
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySherman        1.986128    1.226774
## damagecauseDrought:countySherman               -13.868724 1600.458031
## damagecauseFreeze:countySherman                -16.565591 1600.457802
## damagecauseFrost:countySherman                 -18.760437 1600.457909
## damagecauseHail:countySherman                   -0.706288    1.469672
## damagecauseHeat:countySherman                  -13.868724 1600.458070
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySpokane           -16.544582 1600.457823
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySpokane        0.711188    1.196811
## damagecauseDrought:countySpokane                 1.382247 2263.388820
## damagecauseFreeze:countySpokane                -16.544582 1600.457809
## damagecauseFrost:countySpokane                 -16.193801 1600.457832
## damagecauseHail:countySpokane                    1.681886    1.161950
## damagecauseHeat:countySpokane                    1.382247 2263.388847
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla          -16.849194 1600.457826
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla       1.484210    1.257125
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla              -14.777217 1600.458031
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla               -14.777217 1600.458053
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla                -14.777217 1600.458063
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                   1.681886    1.170467
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                   1.077635 2263.388849
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUnion             -16.565591 1600.457816
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUnion          0.406576    1.200477
## damagecauseDrought:countyUnion                 -14.666550 1600.457877
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUnion                  -15.940701 1600.457812
## damagecauseFrost:countyUnion                   -16.260979 1600.457816
## damagecauseHail:countyUnion                      2.590379    1.170565
## damagecauseHeat:countyUnion                    -13.868724 1600.458070
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla       -17.169472 1600.457833
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla    0.086297    1.210064
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla           -15.097496 1600.458038
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla            -16.818692 1600.457832
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla             -15.895322 1600.457916
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla                0.133523    1.188607
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla                0.757356 2263.388854
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWallowa           -18.143182 1600.457836
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWallowa       -0.217257    1.205548
## damagecauseDrought:countyWallowa               -16.244943 1600.457788
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWallowa                -18.143182 1600.457822
## damagecauseFrost:countyWallowa                 -17.473715 1600.457813
## damagecauseHail:countyWallowa                    1.058053    1.175077
## damagecauseHeat:countyWallowa                  -16.565221 1600.457820
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWasco             -17.469111 1600.457813
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWasco          1.031466    1.206028
## damagecauseDrought:countyWasco                 -15.270431 1600.457874
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWasco                  -16.193801 1600.457822
## damagecauseFrost:countyWasco                   -17.773354 1600.457813
## damagecauseHail:countyWasco                      0.002944    1.223318
## damagecauseHeat:countyWasco                    -14.472605 1600.458067
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWhitman           -16.498413 1600.457839
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWhitman        1.077635    1.226779
## damagecauseDrought:countyWhitman                 1.077635 2263.388822
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWhitman                -16.498414 1600.457825
## damagecauseFrost:countyWhitman                 -14.777217 1600.458063
## damagecauseHail:countyWhitman                    1.681886    1.170467
## damagecauseHeat:countyWhitman                    1.077635 2263.388849
##                                               z value        Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                                     1.364         0.17255    
## year2002                                        0.122         0.90278    
## year2003                                       -2.098         0.03591 *  
## year2004                                       -0.122         0.90269    
## year2005                                       -1.476         0.13989    
## year2006                                        3.031         0.00244 ** 
## year2007                                       -0.613         0.54015    
## year2008                                        4.481 0.0000074238141 ***
## year2009                                        5.206 0.0000001928975 ***
## year2010                                        3.998 0.0000639570033 ***
## year2011                                        1.338         0.18084    
## year2012                                        4.481 0.0000074238141 ***
## year2013                                        6.762 0.0000000000136 ***
## year2014                                        4.965 0.0000006886671 ***
## year2015                                        4.602 0.0000041840555 ***
## damagecauseCold Winter                          0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseDecline in Price                    -0.449         0.65370    
## damagecauseDrought                              0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseFreeze                               0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseFrost                                0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseHail                                -1.943         0.05199 .  
## damagecauseHeat                                 0.011         0.99144    
## countyAsotin                                   -2.609         0.00908 ** 
## countyBenewah                                  -1.943         0.05199 .  
## countyBenton                                   -2.609         0.00908 ** 
## countyClearwater                               -1.237         0.21608    
## countyColumbia                                 -2.280         0.02261 *  
## countyDouglas                                  -1.597         0.11026    
## countyFranklin                                 -1.237         0.21608    
## countyGarfield                                 -2.609         0.00908 ** 
## countyGilliam                                  -2.280         0.02261 *  
## countyGrant                                    -1.597         0.11026    
## countyIdaho                                    -0.857         0.39141    
## countyLatah                                    -1.237         0.21608    
## countyLewis                                    -0.857         0.39141    
## countyLincoln                                  -1.237         0.21608    
## countyMorrow                                   -1.943         0.05199 .  
## countyNez Perce                                -1.597         0.11026    
## countySherman                                  -2.280         0.02261 *  
## countySpokane                                  -1.597         0.11026    
## countyUmatilla                                 -1.237         0.21608    
## countyUnion                                    -2.280         0.02261 *  
## countyWalla Walla                              -0.857         0.39141    
## countyWallowa                                  -1.943         0.05199 .  
## countyWasco                                    -1.597         0.11026    
## countyWhitman                                  -1.237         0.21608    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyAsotin            -0.010         0.99175    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyAsotin        0.600         0.54826    
## damagecauseDrought:countyAsotin                -0.008         0.99325    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyAsotin                 -0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseFrost:countyAsotin                  -0.011         0.99106    
## damagecauseHail:countyAsotin                    1.697         0.08968 .  
## damagecauseHeat:countyAsotin                   -0.008         0.99325    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenewah           -0.011         0.99159    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenewah      -0.180         0.85698    
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenewah               -0.009         0.99254    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenewah                -0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenewah                 -0.011         0.99159    
## damagecauseHail:countyBenewah                  -0.166         0.86835    
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenewah                  -0.010         0.99208    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenton            -0.010         0.99239    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenton        1.103         0.26999    
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenton                -0.009         0.99285    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenton                 -0.010         0.99221    
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenton                  -0.010         0.99190    
## damagecauseHail:countyBenton                   -0.262         0.79347    
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenton                   -0.010         0.99221    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyClearwater        -0.012         0.99065    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyClearwater   -0.955         0.33952    
## damagecauseDrought:countyClearwater            -0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyClearwater             -0.012         0.99045    
## damagecauseFrost:countyClearwater              -0.012         0.99045    
## damagecauseHail:countyClearwater                0.924         0.35537    
## damagecauseHeat:countyClearwater               -0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyColumbia          -0.011         0.99128    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyColumbia      1.095         0.27346    
## damagecauseDrought:countyColumbia              -0.009         0.99269    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyColumbia               -0.011         0.99159    
## damagecauseFrost:countyColumbia                -0.010         0.99174    
## damagecauseHail:countyColumbia                  0.494         0.62096    
## damagecauseHeat:countyColumbia                 -0.009         0.99269    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyDouglas           -0.010         0.99239    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyDouglas       0.341         0.73317    
## damagecauseDrought:countyDouglas                0.001         0.99951    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyDouglas                -0.010         0.99239    
## damagecauseFrost:countyDouglas                 -0.009         0.99278    
## damagecauseHail:countyDouglas                   0.925         0.35515    
## damagecauseHeat:countyDouglas                  -0.010         0.99239    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyFranklin          -0.009         0.99263    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyFranklin      0.878         0.37971    
## damagecauseDrought:countyFranklin               0.000         0.99962    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyFranklin               -0.010         0.99198    
## damagecauseFrost:countyFranklin                -0.009         0.99263    
## damagecauseHail:countyFranklin                  0.924         0.35537    
## damagecauseHeat:countyFranklin                  0.000         0.99962    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGarfield          -0.011         0.99106    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGarfield      1.103         0.26999    
## damagecauseDrought:countyGarfield              -0.008         0.99325    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGarfield               -0.010         0.99205    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGarfield                -0.011         0.99160    
## damagecauseHail:countyGarfield                  1.415         0.15702    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGarfield                 -0.008         0.99325    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGilliam           -0.011         0.99128    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGilliam       1.095         0.27346    
## damagecauseDrought:countyGilliam               -0.009         0.99309    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGilliam                -0.011         0.99159    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGilliam                 -0.011         0.99128    
## damagecauseHail:countyGilliam                   1.155         0.24798    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGilliam                   0.001         0.99930    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant             -0.010         0.99193    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant         0.855         0.39241    
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant                  0.001         0.99951    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                  -0.009         0.99278    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                    0.001         0.99951    
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                     0.645         0.51867    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                    -0.009         0.99278    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyIdaho             -0.011         0.99113    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyIdaho        -0.680         0.49679    
## damagecauseDrought:countyIdaho                 -0.010         0.99208    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyIdaho                  -0.011         0.99083    
## damagecauseFrost:countyIdaho                   -0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseHail:countyIdaho                     0.899         0.36855    
## damagecauseHeat:countyIdaho                    -0.010         0.99182    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLatah             -0.011         0.99114    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLatah         0.085         0.93210    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLatah                 -0.010         0.99224    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLatah                  -0.011         0.99129    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLatah                   -0.011         0.99114    
## damagecauseHail:countyLatah                     0.385         0.70038    
## damagecauseHeat:countyLatah                    -0.010         0.99198    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLewis             -0.011         0.99098    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLewis        -0.181         0.85634    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLewis                  0.000         0.99973    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLewis                  -0.012         0.99067    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLewis                   -0.011         0.99113    
## damagecauseHail:countyLewis                     0.384         0.70084    
## damagecauseHeat:countyLewis                    -0.010         0.99182    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLincoln           -0.010         0.99198    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLincoln       0.878         0.37971    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLincoln                0.000         0.99962    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLincoln                 0.000         0.99962    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLincoln                  0.000         0.99962    
## damagecauseHail:countyLincoln                   1.966         0.04935 *  
## damagecauseHeat:countyLincoln                   0.000         0.99962    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyMorrow            -0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyMorrow        1.375         0.16899    
## damagecauseDrought:countyMorrow                -0.009         0.99293    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyMorrow                 -0.010         0.99228    
## damagecauseFrost:countyMorrow                  -0.010         0.99208    
## damagecauseHail:countyMorrow                    1.182         0.23733    
## damagecauseHeat:countyMorrow                   -0.009         0.99293    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyNez Perce         -0.011         0.99159    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyNez Perce     0.341         0.73317    
## damagecauseDrought:countyNez Perce              0.001         0.99951    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyNez Perce              -0.011         0.99129    
## damagecauseFrost:countyNez Perce               -0.011         0.99114    
## damagecauseHail:countyNez Perce                 1.190         0.23414    
## damagecauseHeat:countyNez Perce                -0.010         0.99213    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySherman           -0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySherman       1.619         0.10545    
## damagecauseDrought:countySherman               -0.009         0.99309    
## damagecauseFreeze:countySherman                -0.010         0.99174    
## damagecauseFrost:countySherman                 -0.012         0.99065    
## damagecauseHail:countySherman                  -0.481         0.63082    
## damagecauseHeat:countySherman                  -0.009         0.99309    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySpokane           -0.010         0.99175    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySpokane       0.594         0.55235    
## damagecauseDrought:countySpokane                0.001         0.99951    
## damagecauseFreeze:countySpokane                -0.010         0.99175    
## damagecauseFrost:countySpokane                 -0.010         0.99193    
## damagecauseHail:countySpokane                   1.447         0.14777    
## damagecauseHeat:countySpokane                   0.001         0.99951    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla          -0.011         0.99160    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla      1.181         0.23775    
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla              -0.009         0.99263    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla               -0.009         0.99263    
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla                -0.009         0.99263    
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                  1.437         0.15074    
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                  0.000         0.99962    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUnion             -0.010         0.99174    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUnion         0.339         0.73485    
## damagecauseDrought:countyUnion                 -0.009         0.99269    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUnion                  -0.010         0.99205    
## damagecauseFrost:countyUnion                   -0.010         0.99189    
## damagecauseHail:countyUnion                     2.213         0.02690 *  
## damagecauseHeat:countyUnion                    -0.009         0.99309    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla       -0.011         0.99144    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla   0.071         0.94315    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla           -0.009         0.99247    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla            -0.011         0.99162    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla             -0.010         0.99208    
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla               0.112         0.91056    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla               0.000         0.99973    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWallowa           -0.011         0.99096    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWallowa      -0.180         0.85698    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWallowa               -0.010         0.99190    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWallowa                -0.011         0.99096    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWallowa                 -0.011         0.99129    
## damagecauseHail:countyWallowa                   0.900         0.36790    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWallowa                  -0.010         0.99174    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWasco             -0.011         0.99129    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWasco         0.855         0.39241    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWasco                 -0.010         0.99239    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWasco                  -0.010         0.99193    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWasco                   -0.011         0.99114    
## damagecauseHail:countyWasco                     0.002         0.99808    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWasco                    -0.009         0.99278    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWhitman           -0.010         0.99178    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWhitman       0.878         0.37971    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWhitman                0.000         0.99962    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWhitman                -0.010         0.99178    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWhitman                 -0.009         0.99263    
## damagecauseHail:countyWhitman                   1.437         0.15074    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWhitman                   0.000         0.99962    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 3935.2  on 2999  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2785.3  on 2786  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 3213.3
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 17


FIGURE 26: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Now subset to just those WHEAT observations with a loss greater than zero (so all non-zeros), and run a linear regression (switched to log loss due to outliers), to make sure that our residuals and other parameters suggest normality.

## Linear mixed model fit by REML ['lmerMod']
## Formula: log(loss) ~ year + damagecause + (1 | county)
##    Data: subset(alllevs2_wheat, non_zero == 1)
## 
## REML criterion at convergence: 7179.9
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -3.6996 -0.5892  0.0703  0.6781  2.6628 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups   Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  county   (Intercept) 0.3674   0.6061  
##  Residual             2.4149   1.5540  
## Number of obs: 1907, groups:  county, 25
## 
## Fixed effects:
##                             Estimate Std. Error t value
## (Intercept)                  7.99724    0.22116   36.16
## year2002                     0.43290    0.21176    2.04
## year2003                     0.41796    0.22225    1.88
## year2004                     0.27795    0.21310    1.30
## year2005                     0.07724    0.21910    0.35
## year2006                     0.68710    0.20185    3.40
## year2007                     1.05394    0.21526    4.90
## year2008                     1.69925    0.19843    8.56
## year2009                     2.80687    0.19683   14.26
## year2010                     1.03500    0.19983    5.18
## year2011                     1.13875    0.20808    5.47
## year2012                     1.08797    0.19821    5.49
## year2013                     1.87594    0.19346    9.70
## year2014                     2.09590    0.19745   10.61
## year2015                     2.44563    0.19867   12.31
## damagecauseCold Winter      -0.20275    0.15514   -1.31
## damagecauseDecline in Price  0.25623    0.15697    1.63
## damagecauseDrought           1.95038    0.14151   13.78
## damagecauseFreeze           -0.07762    0.15223   -0.51
## damagecauseFrost             0.50660    0.15314    3.31
## damagecauseHail              0.60254    0.17121    3.52
## damagecauseHeat              1.11373    0.14213    7.84


FIGURE 27: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.



FIGURE 28: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Finally, we examine the WHEAT coefficent estimates of our model output.


FIGURE 29: Wheat mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Hurdle Model - CHERRIES

Here we run our hurdle technique for CHERRIES Is our data normally distributed? What (if any) outliers exist? Are residuals well distributed - indicating normality?

##          llh      llhNull           G2     McFadden         r2ML 
## -317.8075409 -487.9400087  340.2649356    0.3486750    0.3705731 
##         r2CU 
##    0.5042351
## 
##  Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness of fit (GOF) test
## 
## data:  alllevs2_cherries$non_zero, fitted(m1)
## X-squared = 20.237, df = 8, p-value = 0.009476


FIGURE 30: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Checking for multi-collinearity

##                             GVIF Df GVIF^(1/(2*Df))
## year                       1.234 14           1.008
## damagecause            86926.875  6           2.580
## county                 33057.657  6           2.380
## damagecause:county 552999952.453 36           1.323


FIGURE 31: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = non_zero ~ year + damagecause * county, family = binomial(link = logit), 
##     data = alllevs2_cherries)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -2.3889  -0.6865  -0.2662   0.7332   2.6657  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                               Estimate Std. Error z value
## (Intercept)                                    -0.2557     0.8504  -0.301
## year2002                                        1.3468     0.6496   2.073
## year2003                                        0.8558     0.6683   1.281
## year2004                                        1.0287     0.6607   1.557
## year2005                                        1.6378     0.6424   2.549
## year2006                                        0.2489     0.7071   0.352
## year2007                                        1.4951     0.6457   2.316
## year2008                                        1.7759     0.6398   2.775
## year2009                                        3.0258     0.6360   4.757
## year2010                                        3.2700     0.6391   5.116
## year2011                                        2.4185     0.6337   3.816
## year2012                                        3.0258     0.6360   4.757
## year2013                                        3.3940     0.6412   5.293
## year2014                                        2.7839     0.6342   4.390
## year2015                                        3.9136     0.6542   5.982
## damagecauseCold Winter                         -4.0757     1.0832  -3.763
## damagecauseDecline in Price                    -2.6691     0.9463  -2.821
## damagecauseFreeze                              -0.4601     0.9638  -0.477
## damagecauseFrost                               -0.4601     0.9638  -0.477
## damagecauseHail                                -2.3002     0.9341  -2.462
## damagecauseHeat                                -3.5171     1.0063  -3.495
## countyDouglas                                  -1.9451     0.9282  -2.095
## countyFranklin                                 -1.5936     0.9275  -1.718
## countyGrant                                    -1.5936     0.9275  -1.718
## countyUmatilla                                 -1.5936     0.9275  -1.718
## countyWalla Walla                              -3.0664     0.9678  -3.168
## countyWasco                                    -2.3002     0.9341  -2.462
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyDouglas            1.1074     1.6280   0.680
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyDouglas       1.9451     1.2735   1.527
## damagecauseFreeze:countyDouglas                 0.8115     1.2783   0.635
## damagecauseFrost:countyDouglas                  1.5413     1.2923   1.193
## damagecauseHail:countyDouglas                   0.7282     1.3075   0.557
## damagecauseHeat:countyDouglas                   2.3958     1.3315   1.799
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyFranklin           1.5936     1.4688   1.085
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyFranklin      1.1964     1.2874   0.929
## damagecauseFreeze:countyFranklin                1.1899     1.2920   0.921
## damagecauseFrost:countyFranklin                 2.0537     1.3387   1.534
## damagecauseHail:countyFranklin                  1.2247     1.2645   0.969
## damagecauseHeat:countyFranklin                  1.5936     1.3574   1.174
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant              0.7559     1.6276   0.464
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant         1.5936     1.2729   1.252
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                   2.0537     1.3387   1.534
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                   18.2538   908.1178   0.020
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                     1.9487     1.2546   1.553
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                     2.8105     1.3106   2.144
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla           1.5936     1.4688   1.085
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla      0.1871     1.3739   0.136
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla                0.4601     1.2783   0.360
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla                -0.2465     1.2813  -0.192
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                -15.7961   915.7270  -0.017
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                  1.0350     1.4140   0.732
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla        2.2287     1.6505   1.350
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla   2.6691     1.3161   2.028
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla             1.2263     1.3072   0.938
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla              1.5814     1.3046   1.212
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla               2.6974     1.2937   2.085
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla               1.6701     1.6015   1.043
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWasco              3.3095     1.3943   2.374
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWasco         1.4522     1.3193   1.101
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWasco                   2.3002     1.3134   1.751
## damagecauseFrost:countyWasco                    1.8964     1.2964   1.463
## damagecauseHail:countyWasco                   -15.0896   915.7271  -0.016
## damagecauseHeat:countyWasco                     2.3002     1.3620   1.689
##                                                   Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                                       0.763610    
## year2002                                          0.038159 *  
## year2003                                          0.200346    
## year2004                                          0.119448    
## year2005                                          0.010790 *  
## year2006                                          0.724798    
## year2007                                          0.020577 *  
## year2008                                          0.005512 ** 
## year2009                                      0.0000019606 ***
## year2010                                      0.0000003117 ***
## year2011                                          0.000135 ***
## year2012                                      0.0000019606 ***
## year2013                                      0.0000001205 ***
## year2014                                      0.0000113513 ***
## year2015                                      0.0000000022 ***
## damagecauseCold Winter                            0.000168 ***
## damagecauseDecline in Price                       0.004793 ** 
## damagecauseFreeze                                 0.633100    
## damagecauseFrost                                  0.633100    
## damagecauseHail                                   0.013802 *  
## damagecauseHeat                                   0.000474 ***
## countyDouglas                                     0.036130 *  
## countyFranklin                                    0.085741 .  
## countyGrant                                       0.085741 .  
## countyUmatilla                                    0.085741 .  
## countyWalla Walla                                 0.001533 ** 
## countyWasco                                       0.013802 *  
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyDouglas              0.496356    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyDouglas         0.126678    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyDouglas                   0.525526    
## damagecauseFrost:countyDouglas                    0.232994    
## damagecauseHail:countyDouglas                     0.577577    
## damagecauseHeat:countyDouglas                     0.071974 .  
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyFranklin             0.277934    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyFranklin        0.352744    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyFranklin                  0.357052    
## damagecauseFrost:countyFranklin                   0.125004    
## damagecauseHail:countyFranklin                    0.332793    
## damagecauseHeat:countyFranklin                    0.240384    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant                0.642321    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant           0.210594    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                     0.125004    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                      0.983963    
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                       0.120368    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                       0.031996 *  
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla             0.277934    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla        0.891693    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla                  0.718922    
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla                   0.847458    
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                    0.986237    
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                    0.464180    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla          0.176910    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla     0.042555 *  
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla               0.348207    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla                0.225475    
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla                 0.037059 *  
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla                 0.297049    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWasco                0.017619 *  
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWasco           0.271012    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWasco                     0.079895 .  
## damagecauseFrost:countyWasco                      0.143510    
## damagecauseHail:countyWasco                       0.986853    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWasco                       0.091251 .  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 975.88  on 734  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 635.62  on 672  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 761.62
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 16


FIGURE 32: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Now we run our CHERRIES mixed model analysis for these zero values.


FIGURE 33: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Checking for multi-collinearity for zero value run

##                             GVIF Df GVIF^(1/(2*Df))
## year                       1.234 14           1.008
## damagecause            86926.875  6           2.580
## county                 33057.657  6           2.380
## damagecause:county 552999952.453 36           1.323


FIGURE 34: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = non_zero ~ year + damagecause * county, family = binomial(link = logit), 
##     data = alllevs2_cherries)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -2.3889  -0.6865  -0.2662   0.7332   2.6657  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                               Estimate Std. Error z value
## (Intercept)                                    -0.2557     0.8504  -0.301
## year2002                                        1.3468     0.6496   2.073
## year2003                                        0.8558     0.6683   1.281
## year2004                                        1.0287     0.6607   1.557
## year2005                                        1.6378     0.6424   2.549
## year2006                                        0.2489     0.7071   0.352
## year2007                                        1.4951     0.6457   2.316
## year2008                                        1.7759     0.6398   2.775
## year2009                                        3.0258     0.6360   4.757
## year2010                                        3.2700     0.6391   5.116
## year2011                                        2.4185     0.6337   3.816
## year2012                                        3.0258     0.6360   4.757
## year2013                                        3.3940     0.6412   5.293
## year2014                                        2.7839     0.6342   4.390
## year2015                                        3.9136     0.6542   5.982
## damagecauseCold Winter                         -4.0757     1.0832  -3.763
## damagecauseDecline in Price                    -2.6691     0.9463  -2.821
## damagecauseFreeze                              -0.4601     0.9638  -0.477
## damagecauseFrost                               -0.4601     0.9638  -0.477
## damagecauseHail                                -2.3002     0.9341  -2.462
## damagecauseHeat                                -3.5171     1.0063  -3.495
## countyDouglas                                  -1.9451     0.9282  -2.095
## countyFranklin                                 -1.5936     0.9275  -1.718
## countyGrant                                    -1.5936     0.9275  -1.718
## countyUmatilla                                 -1.5936     0.9275  -1.718
## countyWalla Walla                              -3.0664     0.9678  -3.168
## countyWasco                                    -2.3002     0.9341  -2.462
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyDouglas            1.1074     1.6280   0.680
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyDouglas       1.9451     1.2735   1.527
## damagecauseFreeze:countyDouglas                 0.8115     1.2783   0.635
## damagecauseFrost:countyDouglas                  1.5413     1.2923   1.193
## damagecauseHail:countyDouglas                   0.7282     1.3075   0.557
## damagecauseHeat:countyDouglas                   2.3958     1.3315   1.799
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyFranklin           1.5936     1.4688   1.085
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyFranklin      1.1964     1.2874   0.929
## damagecauseFreeze:countyFranklin                1.1899     1.2920   0.921
## damagecauseFrost:countyFranklin                 2.0537     1.3387   1.534
## damagecauseHail:countyFranklin                  1.2247     1.2645   0.969
## damagecauseHeat:countyFranklin                  1.5936     1.3574   1.174
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant              0.7559     1.6276   0.464
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant         1.5936     1.2729   1.252
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                   2.0537     1.3387   1.534
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                   18.2538   908.1178   0.020
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                     1.9487     1.2546   1.553
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                     2.8105     1.3106   2.144
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla           1.5936     1.4688   1.085
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla      0.1871     1.3739   0.136
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla                0.4601     1.2783   0.360
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla                -0.2465     1.2813  -0.192
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                -15.7961   915.7270  -0.017
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                  1.0350     1.4140   0.732
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla        2.2287     1.6505   1.350
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla   2.6691     1.3161   2.028
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla             1.2263     1.3072   0.938
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla              1.5814     1.3046   1.212
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla               2.6974     1.2937   2.085
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla               1.6701     1.6015   1.043
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWasco              3.3095     1.3943   2.374
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWasco         1.4522     1.3193   1.101
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWasco                   2.3002     1.3134   1.751
## damagecauseFrost:countyWasco                    1.8964     1.2964   1.463
## damagecauseHail:countyWasco                   -15.0896   915.7271  -0.016
## damagecauseHeat:countyWasco                     2.3002     1.3620   1.689
##                                                   Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                                       0.763610    
## year2002                                          0.038159 *  
## year2003                                          0.200346    
## year2004                                          0.119448    
## year2005                                          0.010790 *  
## year2006                                          0.724798    
## year2007                                          0.020577 *  
## year2008                                          0.005512 ** 
## year2009                                      0.0000019606 ***
## year2010                                      0.0000003117 ***
## year2011                                          0.000135 ***
## year2012                                      0.0000019606 ***
## year2013                                      0.0000001205 ***
## year2014                                      0.0000113513 ***
## year2015                                      0.0000000022 ***
## damagecauseCold Winter                            0.000168 ***
## damagecauseDecline in Price                       0.004793 ** 
## damagecauseFreeze                                 0.633100    
## damagecauseFrost                                  0.633100    
## damagecauseHail                                   0.013802 *  
## damagecauseHeat                                   0.000474 ***
## countyDouglas                                     0.036130 *  
## countyFranklin                                    0.085741 .  
## countyGrant                                       0.085741 .  
## countyUmatilla                                    0.085741 .  
## countyWalla Walla                                 0.001533 ** 
## countyWasco                                       0.013802 *  
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyDouglas              0.496356    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyDouglas         0.126678    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyDouglas                   0.525526    
## damagecauseFrost:countyDouglas                    0.232994    
## damagecauseHail:countyDouglas                     0.577577    
## damagecauseHeat:countyDouglas                     0.071974 .  
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyFranklin             0.277934    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyFranklin        0.352744    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyFranklin                  0.357052    
## damagecauseFrost:countyFranklin                   0.125004    
## damagecauseHail:countyFranklin                    0.332793    
## damagecauseHeat:countyFranklin                    0.240384    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant                0.642321    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant           0.210594    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                     0.125004    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                      0.983963    
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                       0.120368    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                       0.031996 *  
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla             0.277934    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla        0.891693    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla                  0.718922    
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla                   0.847458    
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                    0.986237    
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                    0.464180    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla          0.176910    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla     0.042555 *  
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla               0.348207    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla                0.225475    
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla                 0.037059 *  
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla                 0.297049    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWasco                0.017619 *  
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWasco           0.271012    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWasco                     0.079895 .  
## damagecauseFrost:countyWasco                      0.143510    
## damagecauseHail:countyWasco                       0.986853    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWasco                       0.091251 .  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 975.88  on 734  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 635.62  on 672  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 761.62
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 16


FIGURE 35: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Now subset to just those CHERRIES observations with a loss greater than zero (so all non-zeros), and run a linear regression (switched to log loss due to outliers), to make sure that our residuals and other parameters suggest normality.

## Linear mixed model fit by REML ['lmerMod']
## Formula: log(loss) ~ year + damagecause + (1 | county)
##    Data: subset(alllevs2_cherries, non_zero == 1)
## 
## REML criterion at convergence: 948
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -4.5506 -0.5865  0.1251  0.6044  2.5611 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups   Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  county   (Intercept) 0.1767   0.4203  
##  Residual             1.7597   1.3265  
## Number of obs: 279, groups:  county, 7
## 
## Fixed effects:
##                             Estimate Std. Error t value
## (Intercept)                   8.8975     0.6014  14.794
## year2002                      0.4859     0.6666   0.729
## year2003                     -0.2252     0.6993  -0.322
## year2004                      0.3002     0.6823   0.440
## year2005                      0.7762     0.6516   1.191
## year2006                      0.2667     0.7449   0.358
## year2007                      1.3422     0.6609   2.031
## year2008                      1.8676     0.6515   2.867
## year2009                      2.2442     0.6122   3.666
## year2010                      1.8473     0.6089   3.034
## year2011                      1.7326     0.6319   2.742
## year2012                      1.3609     0.6121   2.223
## year2013                      1.8619     0.6059   3.073
## year2014                      1.4657     0.6231   2.353
## year2015                      1.6261     0.6012   2.705
## damagecauseCold Winter       -0.8428     0.4203  -2.005
## damagecauseDecline in Price  -0.7787     0.3262  -2.387
## damagecauseFreeze             0.2005     0.2504   0.801
## damagecauseFrost              0.2548     0.2463   1.034
## damagecauseHail              -0.1646     0.3335  -0.493
## damagecauseHeat              -0.1494     0.3562  -0.419


FIGURE 36: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.



FIGURE 37: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Finally, we examine the CHERRIES coefficent estimates of our model output.


FIGURE 38: Cherries mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Hurdle Model - DRY PEAS

Here we run our hurdle technique for DRY PEAS Is our data normally distributed? What (if any) outliers exist? Are residuals well distributed - indicating normality?

##           llh       llhNull            G2      McFadden          r2ML 
##  -679.8268582 -1138.2908423   916.9279682     0.4027652     0.3620367 
##          r2CU 
##     0.5384221
## 
##  Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness of fit (GOF) test
## 
## data:  alllevs2_drypeas$non_zero, fitted(m1)
## X-squared = 9.2597, df = 8, p-value = 0.3209


FIGURE 39: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Checking for mulit-collinearity

##                    GVIF  Df GVIF^(1/(2*Df))
## year                NaN  14             NaN
## damagecause         NaN   7             NaN
## county              NaN  16             NaN
## damagecause:county  NaN 112             NaN


FIGURE 40: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = non_zero ~ year + damagecause * county, family = binomial(link = logit), 
##     data = alllevs2_drypeas)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.35061  -0.56960  -0.20076  -0.00002   2.86220  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                             Estimate
## (Intercept)                                     -3.89430734871832973
## year2002                                         0.41633391702886285
## year2003                                         0.56822550447521269
## year2004                                        -1.25055627331125963
## year2005                                         0.92010180794009488
## year2006                                         1.17882459984911181
## year2007                                         0.64157867470104812
## year2008                                         1.42214062564978150
## year2009                                         0.71334847305491222
## year2010                                         1.65362877866647384
## year2011                                        -0.18499675307633867
## year2012                                         0.71334847305489835
## year2013                                         1.98523316774476544
## year2014                                         2.41173093977262853
## year2015                                         2.35882681332549193
## damagecauseCold Winter                         -16.85994063264047327
## damagecauseDecline in Price                    -16.85994056409861841
## damagecauseDrought                               2.15774044923814845
## damagecauseFreeze                              -16.85994037890478126
## damagecauseFrost                               -16.85994059529529920
## damagecauseHail                                  0.82091444588207041
## damagecauseHeat                                  1.78722319370723315
## countyBenewah                                    2.49688472725128063
## countyClearwater                                 0.00000000000005266
## countyColumbia                                   0.00000000000004326
## countyGarfield                                   0.00000000000002547
## countyGrant                                      0.00000000000006770
## countyIdaho                                      1.78722319370723048
## countyKootenai                                   1.78722319370722338
## countyLatah                                      2.49688472725133082
## countyLewis                                      3.46248680383385699
## countyLincoln                                  -16.85994055958500226
## countyNez Perce                                  2.15774044923821107
## countySpokane                                    2.15774044923818220
## countyUmatilla                                   0.00000000000003461
## countyUnion                                    -16.85994055594627383
## countyWalla Walla                                1.35977265451468354
## countyWhitman                                    4.18004700749303026
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenewah            -2.49688465726260134
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenewah       15.18397028272943494
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenewah                -1.19213837265564671
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenewah                 14.36305565165358189
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenewah                  16.15027906175118488
## damagecauseHail:countyBenewah                   -1.53057597942613177
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenewah                   -0.82162111712470443
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyClearwater          0.00000006998235521
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyClearwater    18.21971321861322224
## damagecauseDrought:countyClearwater              2.02230655825478012
## damagecauseFreeze:countyClearwater              -0.00000018375011126
## damagecauseFrost:countyClearwater               16.85994059529519618
## damagecauseHail:countyClearwater                 0.53885820863256084
## damagecauseHeat:countyClearwater                 0.37051725553088066
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyColumbia           16.85994063264046972
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyColumbia      18.21971321861329329
## damagecauseDrought:countyColumbia                1.64651340896464382
## damagecauseFreeze:countyColumbia                16.85994037890485941
## damagecauseFrost:countyColumbia                 16.85994059529521039
## damagecauseHail:countyColumbia                   0.53885820863258893
## damagecauseHeat:countyColumbia                   2.01703066449558577
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGarfield            0.00000007001535712
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGarfield      17.68085500998066451
## damagecauseDrought:countyGarfield               -0.79796779472351109
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGarfield                -0.00000018374801282
## damagecauseFrost:countyGarfield                  0.00000003264035373
## damagecauseHail:countyGarfield                 -17.68085500853637271
## damagecauseHeat:countyGarfield                   0.70966153354405637
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant               0.00000006998901797
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant          0.00000000145290787
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant                 -19.01768101188927673
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                   -0.00000018376837719
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                    18.21971324980987461
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                     -0.82091444588208817
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                     -0.00000000000006521
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyIdaho              15.89363188481528333
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyIdaho         15.89363181627347821
## damagecauseDrought:countyIdaho                  -0.14070978474254639
## damagecauseFreeze:countyIdaho                   -1.78722337747332261
## damagecauseFrost:countyIdaho                    15.89363184747009683
## damagecauseHail:countyIdaho                      0.53021031008072539
## damagecauseHeat:countyIdaho                     -0.11195958358063930
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyKootenai           -1.78722312372036951
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyKootenai      -1.78722319225921100
## damagecauseDrought:countyKootenai               -2.58519098843070516
## damagecauseFreeze:countyKootenai                -1.78722337746076754
## damagecauseFrost:countyKootenai                 15.07271740158803830
## damagecauseHail:countyKootenai                 -19.46807820224685770
## damagecauseHeat:countyKootenai                  -1.41670593817626944
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLatah              15.18397035127118855
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLatah         15.72282849136196781
## damagecauseDrought:countyLatah                   0.51837805832575701
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLatah                   16.15027884536074154
## damagecauseFrost:countyLatah                    16.52079631728207687
## damagecauseHail:countyLatah                     -0.82091444588206941
## damagecauseHeat:countyLatah                      0.33313171319642149
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLewis              14.75722648332127029
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLewis         14.75722641477945452
## damagecauseDrought:countyLewis                  -1.00298761891703814
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLewis                   13.39745357507097978
## damagecauseFrost:countyLewis                    14.75722644597608024
## damagecauseHail:countyLewis                     -1.78651652246457759
## damagecauseHeat:countyLewis                     -0.07670676272580741
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLincoln            33.71988119222561409
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLincoln       34.54079556956578045
## damagecauseDrought:countyLincoln                16.48942330405410672
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLincoln                 33.71988093848999313
## damagecauseFrost:countyLincoln                  16.85994059222614183
## damagecauseHail:countyLincoln                   -0.82091444894962484
## damagecauseHeat:countyLincoln                   16.43249002039253170
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyNez Perce          15.52311462928436825
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyNez Perce     16.06197276937510665
## damagecauseDrought:countyNez Perce               0.30175873567861727
## damagecauseFreeze:countyNez Perce               16.06197258418134766
## damagecauseFrost:countyNez Perce                16.48942333976427221
## damagecauseHail:countyNez Perce                 -0.15868927409284048
## damagecauseHeat:countyNez Perce                  0.67227599120954906
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySpokane            -2.15774037924921513
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySpokane       16.06197276937511731
## damagecauseDrought:countySpokane                 0.85752233633890484
## damagecauseFreeze:countySpokane                 15.52311437554876150
## damagecauseFrost:countySpokane                  16.06197280057176613
## damagecauseHail:countySpokane                   -0.82091444588207119
## damagecauseHeat:countySpokane                    0.23508336454761791
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla            0.00000006998679597
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla       0.00000000144034931
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla                0.66222517178921247
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla                17.68085482478692683
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla                 18.21971324980991369
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                  -0.82091444588205742
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                   1.67526361012655323
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUnion              33.71988118858672578
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUnion         16.85994055739304187
## damagecauseDrought:countyUnion                  -2.15774045594822761
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUnion                   16.85994037219017372
## damagecauseFrost:countyUnion                    35.07965380575621595
## damagecauseHail:countyUnion                     17.39879876457890617
## damagecauseHeat:countyUnion                     16.85994055594626317
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla        -1.35977258453287142
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla   16.85994056409866104
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla            -0.05502629991904571
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla             16.32108217027223418
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla              16.32108238666263134
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla               -0.02294665115858514
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla                1.47024378593304683
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWhitman            14.46711681885467549
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWhitman       14.03966621112031810
## damagecauseDrought:countyWhitman                -1.16478422191594810
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWhitman                 12.67989337141182915
## damagecauseFrost:countyWhitman                  14.83763403704042005
## damagecauseHail:countyWhitman                   -1.53847464954127644
## damagecauseHeat:countyWhitman                   -1.35003056704528013
##                                                           Std. Error
## (Intercept)                                      1.10414490789888831
## year2002                                         0.40934946407008233
## year2003                                         0.40519765824906745
## year2004                                         0.49570437921253274
## year2005                                         0.39710024556903706
## year2006                                         0.39241675141952942
## year2007                                         0.40333880175135761
## year2008                                         0.38896289852349886
## year2009                                         0.40160890439571922
## year2010                                         0.38653366414769602
## year2011                                         0.43040540282197925
## year2012                                         0.40160890439571872
## year2013                                         0.38454386212807512
## year2014                                         0.38470087357305621
## year2015                                         0.38450738189790634
## damagecauseCold Winter                        2614.19360377837756459
## damagecauseDecline in Price                   2614.19356887536696377
## damagecauseDrought                               1.21584794885982261
## damagecauseFreeze                             2614.19358860601232664
## damagecauseFrost                              2614.19359889391989782
## damagecauseHail                                  1.32503157720226117
## damagecauseHeat                                  1.23260236321806738
## countyBenewah                                    1.20673667498000503
## countyClearwater                                 1.50007063436453270
## countyColumbia                                   1.50007063436454424
## countyGarfield                                   1.50007063436455179
## countyGrant                                      1.50007063436455668
## countyIdaho                                      1.23260236321806516
## countyKootenai                                   1.23260236321806294
## countyLatah                                      1.20673667498000170
## countyLewis                                      1.20837802884509471
## countyLincoln                                 2614.19359578021840207
## countyNez Perce                                  1.21584794885981551
## countySpokane                                    1.21584794885981595
## countyUmatilla                                   1.50007063436455534
## countyUnion                                   2614.19358759318856755
## countyWalla Walla                                1.26304462145631491
## countyWhitman                                    1.23774111773209960
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenewah          3697.02793473475003339
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenewah     2614.19375249772110692
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenewah                 1.46191748541849442
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenewah               2614.19386694414197336
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenewah                2614.19373704448207718
## damagecauseHail:countyBenewah                    1.57436975689342185
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenewah                    1.47599982366660543
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyClearwater       3697.02804211129705436
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyClearwater  2614.19387408085367497
## damagecauseDrought:countyClearwater              1.73342578039746131
## damagecauseFreeze:countyClearwater            3697.02803138456283705
## damagecauseFrost:countyClearwater             2614.19402927743158216
## damagecauseHail:countyClearwater                 1.83045187741181925
## damagecauseHeat:countyClearwater                 1.73070437471580196
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyColumbia         2614.19403416190789358
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyColumbia    2614.19387408085867719
## damagecauseDrought:countyColumbia                1.72014874781506566
## damagecauseFreeze:countyColumbia              2614.19401898955538854
## damagecauseFrost:countyColumbia               2614.19402927743567489
## damagecauseHail:countyColumbia                   1.83045187741182702
## damagecauseHeat:countyColumbia                   1.73238650855326592
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGarfield         3697.02804211247030253
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGarfield    2614.19390472344230147
## damagecauseDrought:countyGarfield                1.75271632673883104
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGarfield              3697.02803138562649110
## damagecauseFrost:countyGarfield               3697.02803865702071562
## damagecauseHail:countyGarfield                2614.19392974569791477
## damagecauseHeat:countyGarfield                   1.72418893311612131
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant            3697.02804211249576838
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant       3697.02801742199653745
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant                2614.19387679215287790
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                 3697.02803139549814659
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                  2614.19390409939296660
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                      2.00147959986255319
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                      1.74265664813009424
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyIdaho            2614.19379958840045219
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyIdaho       2614.19376468540167480
## damagecauseDrought:countyIdaho                   1.49207755542196807
## damagecauseFreeze:countyIdaho                 3697.02793253398385787
## damagecauseFrost:countyIdaho                  2614.19379470394142118
## damagecauseHail:countyIdaho                      1.57128998857843505
## damagecauseHeat:countyIdaho                      1.49764005010132717
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyKootenai         3697.02794326541652481
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyKootenai    3697.02791857765078021
## damagecauseDrought:countyKootenai                1.53040813664141528
## damagecauseFreeze:countyKootenai              3697.02793254189737127
## damagecauseFrost:countyKootenai               2614.19388935928600404
## damagecauseHail:countyKootenai                2614.19379019635152872
## damagecauseHeat:countyKootenai                   1.50464018982646319
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLatah            2614.19378740072033906
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLatah       2614.19372168208428775
## damagecauseDrought:countyLatah                   1.56912256941970019
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLatah                 2614.19372675659678862
## damagecauseFrost:countyLatah                  2614.19372908160039515
## damagecauseHail:countyLatah                      1.55362336457265626
## damagecauseHeat:countyLatah                      1.52713804206368087
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLewis            2614.19375715654905434
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLewis       2614.19372225354618422
## damagecauseDrought:countyLewis                   1.51385456670476204
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLewis                 2614.19386764346609198
## damagecauseFrost:countyLewis                  2614.19375227208411161
## damagecauseHail:countyLewis                      1.55445159849554115
## damagecauseHeat:countyLewis                      1.58248358843868431
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLincoln          3697.02804351159511498
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLincoln     3697.02795201744993392
## damagecauseDrought:countyLincoln              2614.19373826359651503
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLincoln               3697.02803278183728253
## damagecauseFrost:countyLincoln                4527.91588091432822694
## damagecauseHail:countyLincoln                 3697.02796957755663243
## damagecauseHeat:countyLincoln                 2614.19376083434099201
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyNez Perce        2614.19379167801389485
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyNez Perce   2614.19372598746849690
## damagecauseDrought:countyNez Perce               1.52097525643588716
## damagecauseFreeze:countyNez Perce             2614.19374571812386421
## damagecauseFrost:countyNez Perce              2614.19374137728118512
## damagecauseHail:countyNez Perce                  1.55769256321424132
## damagecauseHeat:countyNez Perce                  1.53465475248918071
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySpokane          3697.02793771427059255
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySpokane     2614.19372598746758740
## damagecauseDrought:countySpokane                 1.57643231196931066
## damagecauseFreeze:countySpokane               2614.19377650566229931
## damagecauseFrost:countySpokane                2614.19375600601097176
## damagecauseHail:countySpokane                    1.56817455415911811
## damagecauseHeat:countySpokane                    1.50728858986443615
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla         3697.02804211169132032
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla    3697.02801743432473813
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla                1.70914692191476814
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla              2614.19392445410085202
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla               2614.19390409939524034
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                   2.00147959986254742
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                   1.72504349365406062
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUnion            3697.02803771969092850
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUnion       4527.91585886344182654
## damagecauseDrought:countyUnion                3697.02792627275493942
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUnion                 4527.91587023624470021
## damagecauseFrost:countyUnion                  3697.02794581275293240
## damagecauseHail:countyUnion                   2614.19379808979738300
## damagecauseHeat:countyUnion                   2614.19373804881342949
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla      3697.02795354067575317
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla 2614.19374856863214518
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla             1.50921548734814692
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla           2614.19379902014543404
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla            2614.19380930803117735
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla                1.60535105877003637
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla                1.57289384040758073
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWhitman          2614.19375605333107160
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWhitman     2614.19373590733175661
## damagecauseDrought:countyWhitman                 1.59108612274686112
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWhitman               2614.19388135643794158
## damagecauseFrost:countyWhitman                2614.19374310149669327
## damagecauseHail:countyWhitman                    1.57716187936569274
## damagecauseHeat:countyWhitman                    1.54994400831889600
##                                               z value       Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                                    -3.527       0.000420 ***
## year2002                                        1.017       0.309124    
## year2003                                        1.402       0.160813    
## year2004                                       -2.523       0.011643 *  
## year2005                                        2.317       0.020501 *  
## year2006                                        3.004       0.002664 ** 
## year2007                                        1.591       0.111684    
## year2008                                        3.656       0.000256 ***
## year2009                                        1.776       0.075696 .  
## year2010                                        4.278 0.000018849729 ***
## year2011                                       -0.430       0.667327    
## year2012                                        1.776       0.075696 .  
## year2013                                        5.163 0.000000243587 ***
## year2014                                        6.269 0.000000000363 ***
## year2015                                        6.135 0.000000000853 ***
## damagecauseCold Winter                         -0.006       0.994854    
## damagecauseDecline in Price                    -0.006       0.994854    
## damagecauseDrought                              1.775       0.075951 .  
## damagecauseFreeze                              -0.006       0.994854    
## damagecauseFrost                               -0.006       0.994854    
## damagecauseHail                                 0.620       0.535559    
## damagecauseHeat                                 1.450       0.147070    
## countyBenewah                                   2.069       0.038535 *  
## countyClearwater                                0.000       1.000000    
## countyColumbia                                  0.000       1.000000    
## countyGarfield                                  0.000       1.000000    
## countyGrant                                     0.000       1.000000    
## countyIdaho                                     1.450       0.147070    
## countyKootenai                                  1.450       0.147070    
## countyLatah                                     2.069       0.038535 *  
## countyLewis                                     2.865       0.004165 ** 
## countyLincoln                                  -0.006       0.994854    
## countyNez Perce                                 1.775       0.075951 .  
## countySpokane                                   1.775       0.075951 .  
## countyUmatilla                                  0.000       1.000000    
## countyUnion                                    -0.006       0.994854    
## countyWalla Walla                               1.077       0.281667    
## countyWhitman                                   3.377       0.000732 ***
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenewah           -0.001       0.999461    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenewah       0.006       0.995366    
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenewah               -0.815       0.414808    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenewah                 0.005       0.995616    
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenewah                  0.006       0.995071    
## damagecauseHail:countyBenewah                  -0.972       0.330959    
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenewah                  -0.557       0.577764    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyClearwater         0.000       1.000000    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyClearwater    0.007       0.994439    
## damagecauseDrought:countyClearwater             1.167       0.243350    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyClearwater              0.000       1.000000    
## damagecauseFrost:countyClearwater               0.006       0.994854    
## damagecauseHail:countyClearwater                0.294       0.768463    
## damagecauseHeat:countyClearwater                0.214       0.830481    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyColumbia           0.006       0.994854    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyColumbia      0.007       0.994439    
## damagecauseDrought:countyColumbia               0.957       0.338470    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyColumbia                0.006       0.994854    
## damagecauseFrost:countyColumbia                 0.006       0.994854    
## damagecauseHail:countyColumbia                  0.294       0.768463    
## damagecauseHeat:countyColumbia                  1.164       0.244299    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGarfield           0.000       1.000000    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGarfield      0.007       0.994604    
## damagecauseDrought:countyGarfield              -0.455       0.648911    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGarfield                0.000       1.000000    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGarfield                 0.000       1.000000    
## damagecauseHail:countyGarfield                 -0.007       0.994604    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGarfield                  0.412       0.680639    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant              0.000       1.000000    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant         0.000       1.000000    
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant                 -0.007       0.994196    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                   0.000       1.000000    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                    0.007       0.994439    
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                    -0.410       0.681693    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                     0.000       1.000000    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyIdaho              0.006       0.995149    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyIdaho         0.006       0.995149    
## damagecauseDrought:countyIdaho                 -0.094       0.924867    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyIdaho                   0.000       0.999614    
## damagecauseFrost:countyIdaho                    0.006       0.995149    
## damagecauseHail:countyIdaho                     0.337       0.735788    
## damagecauseHeat:countyIdaho                    -0.075       0.940408    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyKootenai           0.000       0.999614    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyKootenai      0.000       0.999614    
## damagecauseDrought:countyKootenai              -1.689       0.091178 .  
## damagecauseFreeze:countyKootenai                0.000       0.999614    
## damagecauseFrost:countyKootenai                 0.006       0.995400    
## damagecauseHail:countyKootenai                 -0.007       0.994058    
## damagecauseHeat:countyKootenai                 -0.942       0.346419    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLatah              0.006       0.995366    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLatah         0.006       0.995201    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLatah                  0.330       0.741127    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLatah                   0.006       0.995071    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLatah                    0.006       0.994958    
## damagecauseHail:countyLatah                    -0.528       0.597231    
## damagecauseHeat:countyLatah                     0.218       0.827319    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLewis              0.006       0.995496    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLewis         0.006       0.995496    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLewis                 -0.663       0.507626    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLewis                   0.005       0.995911    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLewis                    0.006       0.995496    
## damagecauseHail:countyLewis                    -1.149       0.250436    
## damagecauseHeat:countyLewis                    -0.048       0.961340    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLincoln            0.009       0.992723    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLincoln       0.009       0.992546    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLincoln                0.006       0.994967    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLincoln                 0.009       0.992723    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLincoln                  0.004       0.997029    
## damagecauseHail:countyLincoln                   0.000       0.999823    
## damagecauseHeat:countyLincoln                   0.006       0.994985    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyNez Perce          0.006       0.995262    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyNez Perce     0.006       0.995098    
## damagecauseDrought:countyNez Perce              0.198       0.842734    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyNez Perce               0.006       0.995098    
## damagecauseFrost:countyNez Perce                0.006       0.994967    
## damagecauseHail:countyNez Perce                -0.102       0.918856    
## damagecauseHeat:countyNez Perce                 0.438       0.661340    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySpokane           -0.001       0.999534    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySpokane       0.006       0.995098    
## damagecauseDrought:countySpokane                0.544       0.586466    
## damagecauseFreeze:countySpokane                 0.006       0.995262    
## damagecauseFrost:countySpokane                  0.006       0.995098    
## damagecauseHail:countySpokane                  -0.523       0.600637    
## damagecauseHeat:countySpokane                   0.156       0.876061    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla           0.000       1.000000    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla      0.000       1.000000    
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla               0.387       0.698416    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla                0.007       0.994604    
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla                 0.007       0.994439    
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                 -0.410       0.681693    
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                  0.971       0.331477    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUnion              0.009       0.992723    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUnion         0.004       0.997029    
## damagecauseDrought:countyUnion                 -0.001       0.999534    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUnion                   0.004       0.997029    
## damagecauseFrost:countyUnion                    0.009       0.992429    
## damagecauseHail:countyUnion                     0.007       0.994690    
## damagecauseHeat:countyUnion                     0.006       0.994854    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla        0.000       0.999707    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla   0.006       0.994854    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla           -0.036       0.970915    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla             0.006       0.995019    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla              0.006       0.995019    
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla              -0.014       0.988596    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla               0.935       0.349923    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWhitman            0.006       0.995584    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWhitman       0.005       0.995715    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWhitman               -0.732       0.464127    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWhitman                 0.005       0.996130    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWhitman                  0.006       0.995471    
## damagecauseHail:countyWhitman                  -0.975       0.329327    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWhitman                  -0.871       0.383744    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2276.6  on 2039  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 1359.7  on 1890  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 1659.7
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 18


FIGURE 41: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Now we run our DRY PEAS mixed model analysis for these zero values.


FIGURE 42: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Checking for mulit-collinearity for zero values run

##                    GVIF  Df GVIF^(1/(2*Df))
## year                NaN  14             NaN
## damagecause         NaN   7             NaN
## county              NaN  16             NaN
## damagecause:county  NaN 112             NaN


FIGURE 43: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = non_zero ~ year + damagecause * county, family = binomial(link = logit), 
##     data = alllevs2_drypeas)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.35061  -0.56960  -0.20076  -0.00002   2.86220  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                             Estimate
## (Intercept)                                     -3.89430734871832973
## year2002                                         0.41633391702886285
## year2003                                         0.56822550447521269
## year2004                                        -1.25055627331125963
## year2005                                         0.92010180794009488
## year2006                                         1.17882459984911181
## year2007                                         0.64157867470104812
## year2008                                         1.42214062564978150
## year2009                                         0.71334847305491222
## year2010                                         1.65362877866647384
## year2011                                        -0.18499675307633867
## year2012                                         0.71334847305489835
## year2013                                         1.98523316774476544
## year2014                                         2.41173093977262853
## year2015                                         2.35882681332549193
## damagecauseCold Winter                         -16.85994063264047327
## damagecauseDecline in Price                    -16.85994056409861841
## damagecauseDrought                               2.15774044923814845
## damagecauseFreeze                              -16.85994037890478126
## damagecauseFrost                               -16.85994059529529920
## damagecauseHail                                  0.82091444588207041
## damagecauseHeat                                  1.78722319370723315
## countyBenewah                                    2.49688472725128063
## countyClearwater                                 0.00000000000005266
## countyColumbia                                   0.00000000000004326
## countyGarfield                                   0.00000000000002547
## countyGrant                                      0.00000000000006770
## countyIdaho                                      1.78722319370723048
## countyKootenai                                   1.78722319370722338
## countyLatah                                      2.49688472725133082
## countyLewis                                      3.46248680383385699
## countyLincoln                                  -16.85994055958500226
## countyNez Perce                                  2.15774044923821107
## countySpokane                                    2.15774044923818220
## countyUmatilla                                   0.00000000000003461
## countyUnion                                    -16.85994055594627383
## countyWalla Walla                                1.35977265451468354
## countyWhitman                                    4.18004700749303026
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenewah            -2.49688465726260134
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenewah       15.18397028272943494
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenewah                -1.19213837265564671
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenewah                 14.36305565165358189
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenewah                  16.15027906175118488
## damagecauseHail:countyBenewah                   -1.53057597942613177
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenewah                   -0.82162111712470443
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyClearwater          0.00000006998235521
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyClearwater    18.21971321861322224
## damagecauseDrought:countyClearwater              2.02230655825478012
## damagecauseFreeze:countyClearwater              -0.00000018375011126
## damagecauseFrost:countyClearwater               16.85994059529519618
## damagecauseHail:countyClearwater                 0.53885820863256084
## damagecauseHeat:countyClearwater                 0.37051725553088066
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyColumbia           16.85994063264046972
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyColumbia      18.21971321861329329
## damagecauseDrought:countyColumbia                1.64651340896464382
## damagecauseFreeze:countyColumbia                16.85994037890485941
## damagecauseFrost:countyColumbia                 16.85994059529521039
## damagecauseHail:countyColumbia                   0.53885820863258893
## damagecauseHeat:countyColumbia                   2.01703066449558577
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGarfield            0.00000007001535712
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGarfield      17.68085500998066451
## damagecauseDrought:countyGarfield               -0.79796779472351109
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGarfield                -0.00000018374801282
## damagecauseFrost:countyGarfield                  0.00000003264035373
## damagecauseHail:countyGarfield                 -17.68085500853637271
## damagecauseHeat:countyGarfield                   0.70966153354405637
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant               0.00000006998901797
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant          0.00000000145290787
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant                 -19.01768101188927673
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                   -0.00000018376837719
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                    18.21971324980987461
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                     -0.82091444588208817
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                     -0.00000000000006521
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyIdaho              15.89363188481528333
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyIdaho         15.89363181627347821
## damagecauseDrought:countyIdaho                  -0.14070978474254639
## damagecauseFreeze:countyIdaho                   -1.78722337747332261
## damagecauseFrost:countyIdaho                    15.89363184747009683
## damagecauseHail:countyIdaho                      0.53021031008072539
## damagecauseHeat:countyIdaho                     -0.11195958358063930
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyKootenai           -1.78722312372036951
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyKootenai      -1.78722319225921100
## damagecauseDrought:countyKootenai               -2.58519098843070516
## damagecauseFreeze:countyKootenai                -1.78722337746076754
## damagecauseFrost:countyKootenai                 15.07271740158803830
## damagecauseHail:countyKootenai                 -19.46807820224685770
## damagecauseHeat:countyKootenai                  -1.41670593817626944
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLatah              15.18397035127118855
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLatah         15.72282849136196781
## damagecauseDrought:countyLatah                   0.51837805832575701
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLatah                   16.15027884536074154
## damagecauseFrost:countyLatah                    16.52079631728207687
## damagecauseHail:countyLatah                     -0.82091444588206941
## damagecauseHeat:countyLatah                      0.33313171319642149
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLewis              14.75722648332127029
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLewis         14.75722641477945452
## damagecauseDrought:countyLewis                  -1.00298761891703814
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLewis                   13.39745357507097978
## damagecauseFrost:countyLewis                    14.75722644597608024
## damagecauseHail:countyLewis                     -1.78651652246457759
## damagecauseHeat:countyLewis                     -0.07670676272580741
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLincoln            33.71988119222561409
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLincoln       34.54079556956578045
## damagecauseDrought:countyLincoln                16.48942330405410672
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLincoln                 33.71988093848999313
## damagecauseFrost:countyLincoln                  16.85994059222614183
## damagecauseHail:countyLincoln                   -0.82091444894962484
## damagecauseHeat:countyLincoln                   16.43249002039253170
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyNez Perce          15.52311462928436825
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyNez Perce     16.06197276937510665
## damagecauseDrought:countyNez Perce               0.30175873567861727
## damagecauseFreeze:countyNez Perce               16.06197258418134766
## damagecauseFrost:countyNez Perce                16.48942333976427221
## damagecauseHail:countyNez Perce                 -0.15868927409284048
## damagecauseHeat:countyNez Perce                  0.67227599120954906
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySpokane            -2.15774037924921513
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySpokane       16.06197276937511731
## damagecauseDrought:countySpokane                 0.85752233633890484
## damagecauseFreeze:countySpokane                 15.52311437554876150
## damagecauseFrost:countySpokane                  16.06197280057176613
## damagecauseHail:countySpokane                   -0.82091444588207119
## damagecauseHeat:countySpokane                    0.23508336454761791
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla            0.00000006998679597
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla       0.00000000144034931
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla                0.66222517178921247
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla                17.68085482478692683
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla                 18.21971324980991369
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                  -0.82091444588205742
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                   1.67526361012655323
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUnion              33.71988118858672578
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUnion         16.85994055739304187
## damagecauseDrought:countyUnion                  -2.15774045594822761
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUnion                   16.85994037219017372
## damagecauseFrost:countyUnion                    35.07965380575621595
## damagecauseHail:countyUnion                     17.39879876457890617
## damagecauseHeat:countyUnion                     16.85994055594626317
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla        -1.35977258453287142
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla   16.85994056409866104
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla            -0.05502629991904571
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla             16.32108217027223418
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla              16.32108238666263134
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla               -0.02294665115858514
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla                1.47024378593304683
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWhitman            14.46711681885467549
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWhitman       14.03966621112031810
## damagecauseDrought:countyWhitman                -1.16478422191594810
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWhitman                 12.67989337141182915
## damagecauseFrost:countyWhitman                  14.83763403704042005
## damagecauseHail:countyWhitman                   -1.53847464954127644
## damagecauseHeat:countyWhitman                   -1.35003056704528013
##                                                           Std. Error
## (Intercept)                                      1.10414490789888831
## year2002                                         0.40934946407008233
## year2003                                         0.40519765824906745
## year2004                                         0.49570437921253274
## year2005                                         0.39710024556903706
## year2006                                         0.39241675141952942
## year2007                                         0.40333880175135761
## year2008                                         0.38896289852349886
## year2009                                         0.40160890439571922
## year2010                                         0.38653366414769602
## year2011                                         0.43040540282197925
## year2012                                         0.40160890439571872
## year2013                                         0.38454386212807512
## year2014                                         0.38470087357305621
## year2015                                         0.38450738189790634
## damagecauseCold Winter                        2614.19360377837756459
## damagecauseDecline in Price                   2614.19356887536696377
## damagecauseDrought                               1.21584794885982261
## damagecauseFreeze                             2614.19358860601232664
## damagecauseFrost                              2614.19359889391989782
## damagecauseHail                                  1.32503157720226117
## damagecauseHeat                                  1.23260236321806738
## countyBenewah                                    1.20673667498000503
## countyClearwater                                 1.50007063436453270
## countyColumbia                                   1.50007063436454424
## countyGarfield                                   1.50007063436455179
## countyGrant                                      1.50007063436455668
## countyIdaho                                      1.23260236321806516
## countyKootenai                                   1.23260236321806294
## countyLatah                                      1.20673667498000170
## countyLewis                                      1.20837802884509471
## countyLincoln                                 2614.19359578021840207
## countyNez Perce                                  1.21584794885981551
## countySpokane                                    1.21584794885981595
## countyUmatilla                                   1.50007063436455534
## countyUnion                                   2614.19358759318856755
## countyWalla Walla                                1.26304462145631491
## countyWhitman                                    1.23774111773209960
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenewah          3697.02793473475003339
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenewah     2614.19375249772110692
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenewah                 1.46191748541849442
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenewah               2614.19386694414197336
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenewah                2614.19373704448207718
## damagecauseHail:countyBenewah                    1.57436975689342185
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenewah                    1.47599982366660543
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyClearwater       3697.02804211129705436
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyClearwater  2614.19387408085367497
## damagecauseDrought:countyClearwater              1.73342578039746131
## damagecauseFreeze:countyClearwater            3697.02803138456283705
## damagecauseFrost:countyClearwater             2614.19402927743158216
## damagecauseHail:countyClearwater                 1.83045187741181925
## damagecauseHeat:countyClearwater                 1.73070437471580196
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyColumbia         2614.19403416190789358
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyColumbia    2614.19387408085867719
## damagecauseDrought:countyColumbia                1.72014874781506566
## damagecauseFreeze:countyColumbia              2614.19401898955538854
## damagecauseFrost:countyColumbia               2614.19402927743567489
## damagecauseHail:countyColumbia                   1.83045187741182702
## damagecauseHeat:countyColumbia                   1.73238650855326592
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGarfield         3697.02804211247030253
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGarfield    2614.19390472344230147
## damagecauseDrought:countyGarfield                1.75271632673883104
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGarfield              3697.02803138562649110
## damagecauseFrost:countyGarfield               3697.02803865702071562
## damagecauseHail:countyGarfield                2614.19392974569791477
## damagecauseHeat:countyGarfield                   1.72418893311612131
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant            3697.02804211249576838
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant       3697.02801742199653745
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant                2614.19387679215287790
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                 3697.02803139549814659
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                  2614.19390409939296660
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                      2.00147959986255319
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                      1.74265664813009424
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyIdaho            2614.19379958840045219
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyIdaho       2614.19376468540167480
## damagecauseDrought:countyIdaho                   1.49207755542196807
## damagecauseFreeze:countyIdaho                 3697.02793253398385787
## damagecauseFrost:countyIdaho                  2614.19379470394142118
## damagecauseHail:countyIdaho                      1.57128998857843505
## damagecauseHeat:countyIdaho                      1.49764005010132717
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyKootenai         3697.02794326541652481
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyKootenai    3697.02791857765078021
## damagecauseDrought:countyKootenai                1.53040813664141528
## damagecauseFreeze:countyKootenai              3697.02793254189737127
## damagecauseFrost:countyKootenai               2614.19388935928600404
## damagecauseHail:countyKootenai                2614.19379019635152872
## damagecauseHeat:countyKootenai                   1.50464018982646319
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLatah            2614.19378740072033906
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLatah       2614.19372168208428775
## damagecauseDrought:countyLatah                   1.56912256941970019
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLatah                 2614.19372675659678862
## damagecauseFrost:countyLatah                  2614.19372908160039515
## damagecauseHail:countyLatah                      1.55362336457265626
## damagecauseHeat:countyLatah                      1.52713804206368087
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLewis            2614.19375715654905434
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLewis       2614.19372225354618422
## damagecauseDrought:countyLewis                   1.51385456670476204
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLewis                 2614.19386764346609198
## damagecauseFrost:countyLewis                  2614.19375227208411161
## damagecauseHail:countyLewis                      1.55445159849554115
## damagecauseHeat:countyLewis                      1.58248358843868431
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLincoln          3697.02804351159511498
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLincoln     3697.02795201744993392
## damagecauseDrought:countyLincoln              2614.19373826359651503
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLincoln               3697.02803278183728253
## damagecauseFrost:countyLincoln                4527.91588091432822694
## damagecauseHail:countyLincoln                 3697.02796957755663243
## damagecauseHeat:countyLincoln                 2614.19376083434099201
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyNez Perce        2614.19379167801389485
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyNez Perce   2614.19372598746849690
## damagecauseDrought:countyNez Perce               1.52097525643588716
## damagecauseFreeze:countyNez Perce             2614.19374571812386421
## damagecauseFrost:countyNez Perce              2614.19374137728118512
## damagecauseHail:countyNez Perce                  1.55769256321424132
## damagecauseHeat:countyNez Perce                  1.53465475248918071
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySpokane          3697.02793771427059255
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySpokane     2614.19372598746758740
## damagecauseDrought:countySpokane                 1.57643231196931066
## damagecauseFreeze:countySpokane               2614.19377650566229931
## damagecauseFrost:countySpokane                2614.19375600601097176
## damagecauseHail:countySpokane                    1.56817455415911811
## damagecauseHeat:countySpokane                    1.50728858986443615
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla         3697.02804211169132032
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla    3697.02801743432473813
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla                1.70914692191476814
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla              2614.19392445410085202
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla               2614.19390409939524034
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                   2.00147959986254742
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                   1.72504349365406062
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUnion            3697.02803771969092850
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUnion       4527.91585886344182654
## damagecauseDrought:countyUnion                3697.02792627275493942
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUnion                 4527.91587023624470021
## damagecauseFrost:countyUnion                  3697.02794581275293240
## damagecauseHail:countyUnion                   2614.19379808979738300
## damagecauseHeat:countyUnion                   2614.19373804881342949
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla      3697.02795354067575317
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla 2614.19374856863214518
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla             1.50921548734814692
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla           2614.19379902014543404
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla            2614.19380930803117735
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla                1.60535105877003637
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla                1.57289384040758073
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWhitman          2614.19375605333107160
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWhitman     2614.19373590733175661
## damagecauseDrought:countyWhitman                 1.59108612274686112
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWhitman               2614.19388135643794158
## damagecauseFrost:countyWhitman                2614.19374310149669327
## damagecauseHail:countyWhitman                    1.57716187936569274
## damagecauseHeat:countyWhitman                    1.54994400831889600
##                                               z value       Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                                    -3.527       0.000420 ***
## year2002                                        1.017       0.309124    
## year2003                                        1.402       0.160813    
## year2004                                       -2.523       0.011643 *  
## year2005                                        2.317       0.020501 *  
## year2006                                        3.004       0.002664 ** 
## year2007                                        1.591       0.111684    
## year2008                                        3.656       0.000256 ***
## year2009                                        1.776       0.075696 .  
## year2010                                        4.278 0.000018849729 ***
## year2011                                       -0.430       0.667327    
## year2012                                        1.776       0.075696 .  
## year2013                                        5.163 0.000000243587 ***
## year2014                                        6.269 0.000000000363 ***
## year2015                                        6.135 0.000000000853 ***
## damagecauseCold Winter                         -0.006       0.994854    
## damagecauseDecline in Price                    -0.006       0.994854    
## damagecauseDrought                              1.775       0.075951 .  
## damagecauseFreeze                              -0.006       0.994854    
## damagecauseFrost                               -0.006       0.994854    
## damagecauseHail                                 0.620       0.535559    
## damagecauseHeat                                 1.450       0.147070    
## countyBenewah                                   2.069       0.038535 *  
## countyClearwater                                0.000       1.000000    
## countyColumbia                                  0.000       1.000000    
## countyGarfield                                  0.000       1.000000    
## countyGrant                                     0.000       1.000000    
## countyIdaho                                     1.450       0.147070    
## countyKootenai                                  1.450       0.147070    
## countyLatah                                     2.069       0.038535 *  
## countyLewis                                     2.865       0.004165 ** 
## countyLincoln                                  -0.006       0.994854    
## countyNez Perce                                 1.775       0.075951 .  
## countySpokane                                   1.775       0.075951 .  
## countyUmatilla                                  0.000       1.000000    
## countyUnion                                    -0.006       0.994854    
## countyWalla Walla                               1.077       0.281667    
## countyWhitman                                   3.377       0.000732 ***
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyBenewah           -0.001       0.999461    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyBenewah       0.006       0.995366    
## damagecauseDrought:countyBenewah               -0.815       0.414808    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyBenewah                 0.005       0.995616    
## damagecauseFrost:countyBenewah                  0.006       0.995071    
## damagecauseHail:countyBenewah                  -0.972       0.330959    
## damagecauseHeat:countyBenewah                  -0.557       0.577764    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyClearwater         0.000       1.000000    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyClearwater    0.007       0.994439    
## damagecauseDrought:countyClearwater             1.167       0.243350    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyClearwater              0.000       1.000000    
## damagecauseFrost:countyClearwater               0.006       0.994854    
## damagecauseHail:countyClearwater                0.294       0.768463    
## damagecauseHeat:countyClearwater                0.214       0.830481    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyColumbia           0.006       0.994854    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyColumbia      0.007       0.994439    
## damagecauseDrought:countyColumbia               0.957       0.338470    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyColumbia                0.006       0.994854    
## damagecauseFrost:countyColumbia                 0.006       0.994854    
## damagecauseHail:countyColumbia                  0.294       0.768463    
## damagecauseHeat:countyColumbia                  1.164       0.244299    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGarfield           0.000       1.000000    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGarfield      0.007       0.994604    
## damagecauseDrought:countyGarfield              -0.455       0.648911    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGarfield                0.000       1.000000    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGarfield                 0.000       1.000000    
## damagecauseHail:countyGarfield                 -0.007       0.994604    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGarfield                  0.412       0.680639    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyGrant              0.000       1.000000    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyGrant         0.000       1.000000    
## damagecauseDrought:countyGrant                 -0.007       0.994196    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyGrant                   0.000       1.000000    
## damagecauseFrost:countyGrant                    0.007       0.994439    
## damagecauseHail:countyGrant                    -0.410       0.681693    
## damagecauseHeat:countyGrant                     0.000       1.000000    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyIdaho              0.006       0.995149    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyIdaho         0.006       0.995149    
## damagecauseDrought:countyIdaho                 -0.094       0.924867    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyIdaho                   0.000       0.999614    
## damagecauseFrost:countyIdaho                    0.006       0.995149    
## damagecauseHail:countyIdaho                     0.337       0.735788    
## damagecauseHeat:countyIdaho                    -0.075       0.940408    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyKootenai           0.000       0.999614    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyKootenai      0.000       0.999614    
## damagecauseDrought:countyKootenai              -1.689       0.091178 .  
## damagecauseFreeze:countyKootenai                0.000       0.999614    
## damagecauseFrost:countyKootenai                 0.006       0.995400    
## damagecauseHail:countyKootenai                 -0.007       0.994058    
## damagecauseHeat:countyKootenai                 -0.942       0.346419    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLatah              0.006       0.995366    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLatah         0.006       0.995201    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLatah                  0.330       0.741127    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLatah                   0.006       0.995071    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLatah                    0.006       0.994958    
## damagecauseHail:countyLatah                    -0.528       0.597231    
## damagecauseHeat:countyLatah                     0.218       0.827319    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLewis              0.006       0.995496    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLewis         0.006       0.995496    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLewis                 -0.663       0.507626    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLewis                   0.005       0.995911    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLewis                    0.006       0.995496    
## damagecauseHail:countyLewis                    -1.149       0.250436    
## damagecauseHeat:countyLewis                    -0.048       0.961340    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyLincoln            0.009       0.992723    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyLincoln       0.009       0.992546    
## damagecauseDrought:countyLincoln                0.006       0.994967    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyLincoln                 0.009       0.992723    
## damagecauseFrost:countyLincoln                  0.004       0.997029    
## damagecauseHail:countyLincoln                   0.000       0.999823    
## damagecauseHeat:countyLincoln                   0.006       0.994985    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyNez Perce          0.006       0.995262    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyNez Perce     0.006       0.995098    
## damagecauseDrought:countyNez Perce              0.198       0.842734    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyNez Perce               0.006       0.995098    
## damagecauseFrost:countyNez Perce                0.006       0.994967    
## damagecauseHail:countyNez Perce                -0.102       0.918856    
## damagecauseHeat:countyNez Perce                 0.438       0.661340    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countySpokane           -0.001       0.999534    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countySpokane       0.006       0.995098    
## damagecauseDrought:countySpokane                0.544       0.586466    
## damagecauseFreeze:countySpokane                 0.006       0.995262    
## damagecauseFrost:countySpokane                  0.006       0.995098    
## damagecauseHail:countySpokane                  -0.523       0.600637    
## damagecauseHeat:countySpokane                   0.156       0.876061    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUmatilla           0.000       1.000000    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUmatilla      0.000       1.000000    
## damagecauseDrought:countyUmatilla               0.387       0.698416    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUmatilla                0.007       0.994604    
## damagecauseFrost:countyUmatilla                 0.007       0.994439    
## damagecauseHail:countyUmatilla                 -0.410       0.681693    
## damagecauseHeat:countyUmatilla                  0.971       0.331477    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyUnion              0.009       0.992723    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyUnion         0.004       0.997029    
## damagecauseDrought:countyUnion                 -0.001       0.999534    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyUnion                   0.004       0.997029    
## damagecauseFrost:countyUnion                    0.009       0.992429    
## damagecauseHail:countyUnion                     0.007       0.994690    
## damagecauseHeat:countyUnion                     0.006       0.994854    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWalla Walla        0.000       0.999707    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWalla Walla   0.006       0.994854    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWalla Walla           -0.036       0.970915    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWalla Walla             0.006       0.995019    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWalla Walla              0.006       0.995019    
## damagecauseHail:countyWalla Walla              -0.014       0.988596    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWalla Walla               0.935       0.349923    
## damagecauseCold Winter:countyWhitman            0.006       0.995584    
## damagecauseDecline in Price:countyWhitman       0.005       0.995715    
## damagecauseDrought:countyWhitman               -0.732       0.464127    
## damagecauseFreeze:countyWhitman                 0.005       0.996130    
## damagecauseFrost:countyWhitman                  0.006       0.995471    
## damagecauseHail:countyWhitman                  -0.975       0.329327    
## damagecauseHeat:countyWhitman                  -0.871       0.383744    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2276.6  on 2039  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 1359.7  on 1890  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 1659.7
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 18


FIGURE 44: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Now subset to just those DRY PEAS observations with a loss greater than zero (so all non-zeros), and run a linear regression (switched to log loss due to outliers), to make sure that our residuals and other parameters suggest normality.

## Linear mixed model fit by REML ['lmerMod']
## Formula: log(loss) ~ year + damagecause + (1 | county)
##    Data: subset(alllevs2_drypeas, non_zero == 1)
## 
## REML criterion at convergence: 1860
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -3.9544 -0.4928  0.1551  0.6655  2.1097 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups   Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  county   (Intercept) 0.3996   0.6321  
##  Residual             2.2811   1.5103  
## Number of obs: 502, groups:  county, 17
## 
## Fixed effects:
##                             Estimate Std. Error t value
## (Intercept)                   6.4011     0.4337  14.758
## year2002                      1.1477     0.4605   2.492
## year2003                      1.7577     0.4493   3.912
## year2004                      1.6750     0.6272   2.670
## year2005                      2.2060     0.4360   5.059
## year2006                      1.3581     0.4271   3.180
## year2007                      1.6262     0.4486   3.625
## year2008                      2.4535     0.4210   5.828
## year2009                      1.8246     0.4456   4.095
## year2010                      2.3902     0.4191   5.703
## year2011                      2.0400     0.5166   3.949
## year2012                      2.2563     0.4510   5.003
## year2013                      2.4718     0.4136   5.977
## year2014                      2.9396     0.4059   7.243
## year2015                      3.8526     0.4023   9.577
## damagecauseCold Winter       -0.6207     0.4355  -1.425
## damagecauseDecline in Price  -0.4614     0.3677  -1.255
## damagecauseDrought            0.4783     0.2587   1.849
## damagecauseFreeze            -0.9689     0.4255  -2.277
## damagecauseFrost             -0.2361     0.3297  -0.716
## damagecauseHail               0.3804     0.2905   1.309
## damagecauseHeat               0.2298     0.2515   0.914


FIGURE 45: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.



FIGURE 46: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.


Finally, we examine the DRY PEAS coefficent estimates of our model output.


FIGURE 47: Dry Peas mixed model coefficient estimates for damage cause and year.